Undergraduate Enrollment Showing Signs of Second Straight Year of Growth

Despite Overall Growth, Early Data Indicates Freshmen Enrollment Declining 5% This Fall

HERNDON, VA – (OCTOBER 23, 2024) – Enrollment in undergraduate programs is up 3% in early reporting this fall compared to similar early data from fall 2023, indicating a second straight year of undergraduate enrollment growth, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s latest report. 

Despite the overall undergraduate growth, the  Stay Informed report (with the latest enrollment information) for fall 2024 shows that freshman enrollment is declining, down 5% in this preliminary data from the same time last fall, with public and private nonprofit four-year institutions seeing the largest declines (-8.5% and -6.5%). An almost 6% drop in the number of 18-year-old freshmen (a proxy for those enrolling immediately after high school graduation) accounts for most of the decline.  

Growth in undergraduate enrollment is therefore being driven by increases in non-freshman students and dual enrolled high school students (undergraduates 17 years old and younger). Both bachelor’s (+1.9%) and associate degree (+4.3%) programs are seeing enrollment gains this fall. Graduate programs are also seeing enrollment gains (+2.1%) for a preliminary estimate of 2.9% annual growth for total postsecondary enrollment this fall. 

“It is startling to see such a substantial drop in freshmen, the first decline since the start of the pandemic in 2020 when they plunged nearly 10%,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “But the gains among students either continuing from last year or returning from prior stop outs are keeping overall undergraduate numbers growing, especially at community colleges, and that’s at least some good news for students and schools alike.” 

The declines in freshman enrollment are most significant at four-year colleges that serve low-income students. At four-year colleges where high shares of the undergraduate population receive Pell Grants, these preliminary data show freshman enrollment  declining by more than 10%. At comparable community colleges, freshman enrollment is rising (+1.2%).  

Undergraduate and graduate enrollments for Hispanic, Black, Asian, and Multiracial students are seeing strong growth this fall. Undergraduate White students, on the other hand, continue to see enrollment declines (-0.6%).  

Other key findings in the report: 

• The number of students pursuing shorter-term credentials is continuing to grow rapidly, with enrollment in undergraduate certificate programs increasing by 7.3%. 

• Traditional-aged undergraduate students from neighborhoods of all income levels are seeing enrollment increases. However, freshman enrollment is showing the reverse trend, declining across all neighborhood income levels, with those from middle-income neighborhoods (lower-middle, middle, and upper-middle quintiles) seeing the largest drops at public and private nonprofit four-year institutions. 

• Freshman enrollment is declining among students of all races and ethnicities, with notable losses among White (-11.4%), Black (-6.1%), and Multiracial (-6.6%) first-time students. Declines for Hispanic and Asian freshmen are relatively muted (-1.4% and -2.8%; Figure 4.1). 
   
• Community colleges (public two-year and primarily associate-degree granting baccalaureate institutions combined) are experiencing smaller freshman enrollment declines (-0.4%). First-time enrollment at these institutions is bolstered by part-time starters (+3.4%), while enrollment of full-time starters is declining (-2.7%; Figure 4.3). In contrast, in fall 2023, full-time freshman enrollment had increased by 3.4% at these community colleges.   

About the Stay Informed Report Series 

The Stay Informed series was created to help educational leaders and policymakers understand the impact of the COVID19 pandemic on postsecondary enrollments. The report’s dashboards continue to be updated within the first two months of every fall term to provide preliminary but timely enrollment updates to the education community using the latest enrollment data available through the National Student Clearinghouse. The current report reflects 8.7 million enrollments reported as of September 26, 2024, by 51.9 percent of postsecondary institutions in the U.S. that are participating in the Clearinghouse. The estimates provided in this report are preliminary and subject to revision. The Current Term Enrollment Estimates report, released every January, provides final enrollment estimates for the fall term.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes. To learn more, visit nscresearchcenter.org.

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