Student Transfer Decreased Sharply During the Pandemic, Potentially Causing a Lasting Impact on Postsecondary Attainment

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Student Transfer Decreased Sharply During the Pandemic, Potentially Causing a Lasting Impact on Postsecondary Attainment

COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Fall 2020 Final Report Released

HERNDON, VA – (DECEMBER 21, 2020) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today new research revealing that the decline in student transfer and mobility this fall is steep and widespread. Only primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enrolled exclusively online before the pandemic, show an increase in returning transfer students this fall.

“Transfer is an important part of student success, enabling access to bachelor’s degrees for community college students, and critical opportunities for course-correction by students whose goals have changed or who need a stronger institutional fit,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse. “As the pandemic continues to constrain these avenues of institutional choice, students will face ever larger barriers to educational attainment, promising careers, and socioeconomic mobility. Today’s data show that these adverse impacts fall disproportionately on Black and Hispanic students.”

The general dampening of student mobility is seen in all transfer pathways. Reverse transfers from four-year to two-year institutions decreased the most, by more than five times the pre-pandemic rate of decline (-19.4% vs. -3.6%). Lateral transfers—students transferring from a four-year to another four-year college, or a two-year to another two-year college—decreased four times more than the pre-pandemic rate of decline (-12.6% vs. -3.1%). There is a 0.7 percent drop from last fall in upward transfers from two-year to four-year institutions, after a slight increase pre-pandemic (+0.2%).

Other key COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report findings include:

Transfer students decreased considerably this fall (-8.1%), more than triple the drop among continuing or returning students who did not transfer (-2.4%, not counting freshmen).
Black and Hispanic transfer students decreased most precipitously at community colleges, and Asian students made gains in the four-year college sector.
Male student mobility declined sharply during the pandemic, regardless of age.
Former students who stopped out prior to the outbreak are far less likely to have returned to higher education this fall, down by 16.7% after a 7.9% growth the year prior. Those who did return were more likely to have transferred to a new institution in the process, and a growing number are choosing primarily online institutions.
Four-year colleges experienced relatively smaller declines in students transferring into four-year colleges (transfer-in enrollment), falling by 2.6% from last fall, as opposed to a more severe decrease of 18.9% in two-year colleges’ transfer-in enrollment. Public four-year institutions maintained relatively steady transfer-in enrollments amid the pandemic, with a growing share of continuing students transferring from two-year colleges.

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report findings are based on the panel of institutions representing 92% of the Clearinghouse universe of institutions and 12.5 million undergraduates without prior bachelor’s degrees or higher and who are not dual-enrolled high school students, as of November 19, 2020.

The Research Center’s COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report series, with support from Ascendium Education Group and ECMC Foundation, identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By making transfer data and insights accessible online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

Forthcoming COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Reports:

First-Look Spring 2021 Report: April 8, 2021
Final Spring 2021 Report: May 2021
Special Report 1: Summer 2021
First-Look Fall 2021 Report: Oct. 2021
Final Fall 2021 Report: Dec 2021
Spring 2022 Report: May 2022
Special Report 2: Summer 2022

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Fall 2020 College Enrollment Declines 2.5%: Nearly Twice the Rate of Decline of Fall 2019

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Fall 2020 College Enrollment Declines 2.5%: Nearly Twice the Rate of Decline of Fall 2019

Enrollment Gaps Appear to Be Widening Because of COVID-19 and the Recession

HERNDON, VA – (DECEMBER 17, 2020) – Overall postsecondary enrollments declined 2.5 percent in fall 2020, nearly twice the rate of enrollment decline reported in fall 2019, according to the final fall 2020 enrollment report issued by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. The nation’s fall, total unduplicated postsecondary enrollment fell from 17.9 million students in 2019 to 17.5 million students in 2020.

In fall 2019, overall postsecondary enrollments decreased 1.3 percent or more than 231,000 students. The annual Fall Current Term Enrollment Estimates provides enrollment declines and increases for each state and the District of Columbia.

In 2020, undergraduate enrollment drove the decline by decreasing 3.6 percent or over 560,200 students from 2019. Sharp declines at public two-year institutions of more than 544,200 students contributed the most to the decline (See Table 3). Furthermore, the freshman enrollment decline of 13.1 percent or more than 327,500 students over last fall is unprecedented (See Table 2).

In a bright spot, graduate enrollment increased by over 98,800 students, or 3.6 percent from the previous fall. The 12 states increasing enrollment compared to 2019 are: Arizona, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Maryland, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Virginia, and West Virginia.

“As the fall semester comes to a close, the impact of the pandemic seems to be disproportionately affecting disadvantaged students by keeping them out of college,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The data reveal that community colleges and freshmen saw the steepest drops in enrollment, while the declines among four-year colleges and continuing undergraduates were generally much smaller.

“Looking through the additional lens of 2020 high school graduates, we observe an even sharper picture, as the immediate college enrollments of those from high poverty, low income, and urban high schools have been hit the hardest. The enrollment gaps appear to be widening because of COVID-19 and the recession.”

Other key findings include:

Public college enrollment (two-year and four-year institutions combined), which enrolls 7 out of 10 postsecondary students, declined by 4% or nearly 530,000 students this fall, mainly because of decreases at public two-year institutions.
Public two-year institutions, in line with what we have documented throughout the fall, recorded undergraduate enrollment losses of over 544,200 students or 10.1% over last year.
Private nonprofit four-year institutions saw declines of roughly 36,000 undergraduate students, offset by increases in graduate students for a 0.1% decrease in total enrollment.
Public four-year institution enrollments increased 0.2 percent or an additional 14,300 students from last fall, driven by the growth in graduate enrollment of more than 62,500 students, and Undergraduate-level certificate or other non-degree program enrollments certificate other non-degree program enrollments of nearly 17,000 students.
Private for-profit four-year institutions grew by 5.3 percent over last year and was the only sector to demonstrate enrollment growth at both the undergraduate and graduate levels (See Table 3). This sector accounts for 4.4% of national postsecondary enrollment.
The freshman enrollment decline of 13.1 percent or more than 327,500 students over last fall is unprecedented (See Table 2). Sharp declines at public two-year institutions of more than 207,200 students or a 21% decrease contributed the most to the decline, falling at a rate almost 20 times higher than the prior year’s decline (pre-pandemic). Private nonprofit four-year colleges also saw double-digit declines of more than 45,500 freshmen or a 10.5% decrease, followed by public four-year institutions of more than 81,600 or an 8.1% decrease. Private for-profit institutions showed an increase in freshman enrollment of 9.5%, or 3,178 students.
Unlike in spring 2020, when dual enrollments of high school students grew 6.9 percent from the previous year, the fall growth rate fell to 0.8% or 8,400 dual enrollees (See Table 5).
Public two-year institutions still enrolled most dual enrollees (61.9%), but this proportion is 0.8 percentage points below last year’s share. Public four-year institutions made the most gains in dual enrollments with more than 10,200 students or a 3.3% increase, and now comprise 30.5 percent of all dual enrollments in fall 2020.
Sharp declines in public two-year colleges are linked to corresponding drops in popular major fields (See Table 11). The largest enrollment decline occurred in Liberal Arts/General Studies (209,400 students, 11.9% decrease), followed by Business/Management (over 52,300 students, 9.2% decrease). Health Professions/Related majors remained unchanged from last year (approximately 18,600 students, 2.3% decrease).
Graduate enrollment increases were evident across all institution sectors, with the largest increase seen at public four-year institutions by over 62,500 students or a 4.6% increase (See Table 3).

Background information

The Fall 2020 Current Term Enrollment Estimates (CTEE) Report provides the Research Center’s final estimates of postsecondary enrollment numbers based on the Clearinghouse universe of institutions, after accounting for data coverage rates. This differs from the Stay Informed report series that is designed to quantify the immediate effects of COVID-19 by analyzing year-over-year percentage change in unadjusted, preliminary data for fixed panels of institutions that reported data in the same month each year from fall 2018 to fall 2020. The estimated enrollment numbers presented in the CTEE report may differ from the results of the Stay Informed reports due to differences in methodology and institution coverage.

The CTEE Series, published every December and May, provides national enrollment estimates by institutional sector, enrollment intensity, age group, gender, major field as well as state-level enrollment estimates. As of fall 2020, postsecondary institutions actively submitting enrollment data to the Clearinghouse account for 97 percent of the total enrollments at Title IV, degree-granting institutions in the United States.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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National Six-Year College Completion Rate Plateaus to 60.1%, According to New Research

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National Six-Year College Completion Rate Plateaus to 60.1%, According to New Research

Completion Progress Made Over Past Several Years Could Be Jeopardized

HERNDON, VA – (DECEMBER 3, 2020) – The national six-year completion rate appears to have reached a plateau, showing the smallest increase of the last five years, a 0.3 percentage point growth to 60.1 percent, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s Completing College: National and State Reports.

The latest data reveals a shifting college completion picture for the nation as well as states. The improvement in six-year completion rates had been slowing, from 2.2 percentage points (2010 to 2011 cohorts) to 1.4 percentage points (2012 to 2013 cohorts). This number is down to 0.3 percentage points for the latest 2014 cohort.

“The completions rate trend is flattening for traditional age students, who comprise the vast majority of the 2014 starting cohort,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “While adult completion rates continue to increase generally, the decline among community college starters, particularly Hispanic and Black students, threatens to reverse the improvements of the past several years.”

Far fewer states reported an increase in six-year completion rates, particularly among community college starters, than they did in the previous cohort year. In addition, the marginal increase in completion rates arising from the additional two years between the six- and eight-year outcomes has shrunk, resulting in a drop in the eight-year completion rate nationally as well as in all types of institutions.

In line with the national trend, public four-year completion rates rose in 32 out of 46 states for which sufficient data are available, while community college rates declined in 26 states out of 42 states. However, the pace of improvement at public four-year colleges has slowed in 18 out of the 33 states that improved. Particularly, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah had gains that were two percentage points smaller than in the previous cohort.

For community college starters, far fewer states improved this year. Only 16 states increased their six-year community college completion rate by at least 0.5 percentage points, compared to 33 states in the previous cohort. Of these 16 states, only six states—Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Maine, New Mexico, and South Dakota—saw improvement of more than 1 percentage point, compared to 27 states in the previous cohort year.

It is unlikely that either the six-year or eight-year completion rates reflected in this year’s report have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic because the degrees and certificates counted were all completed by June 2020. The Research Center’s COVID-19 Supplement Enrollment Report found very little enrollment effects during the Spring of 2020.

Report highlights include:

The national eight-year completion rate fell for the first time in three years, by 0.5 percentage points. Currently, the national eight-year completion rate stands at 61.3 percent for students who entered college in 2012, down from 61.8 percent in the previous cohort year.
Community colleges are the only institution type to experience a drop in the six-year completion rate, reversing the upward trends over the previous two cohort years. The six-year completion rate dropped slightly at community colleges (0.5 percentage points) after having risen for two consecutive years. Private nonprofit four-year institutions made a 0.2 percentage point gain, while public four-year colleges improved by 0.7 percentage points. For-profit four-year institution completion rates jumped 3.1 percentage points, marking an increase of over 10 percentage points in the last four years. But it has little impact on the national rate, as less than 2 percent of the cohort start at a for-profit four-year college.
The six-year completion rate of community college starters declined for Hispanic and Black students, despite previous growth. Only Asian students made gains, whose rate improved by 1.3 percentage points. Notably, Black students who started at public four-year institutions made stronger gains than white students.
States’ college completion patterns appear to be shifting. In line with the national trends, the six-year completion rate was slow to improve at the state level, now with more states experiencing a decline compared to last year, largely because of the decreases at community colleges in many states. Unlike the upward trends we reported last year, out of 42 states with sufficient data, 11 states have slipped for the fall 2014 cohort.

As the fall 2020 Stay Informed report shows, community colleges suffered the most from enrollment declines in the summer and the fall of 2020, revealing a looming enrollment crisis for community colleges in the age of COVID-19. If the community college enrollments and completions continue to trend downward during the pandemic, the steady progress in college completions made by the nation and most states over the past few years could be jeopardized.

The national completion rate counts all students who enter postsecondary education for the first time each year, enrolling full-time or part-time at two-year or four-year institutions, and completing at any U.S. degree-granting institution. It includes those who complete after transfer, not just completions at the starting institution. Thus, the results more fully capture today’s students’ diverse pathways to success, which increasingly involve mobility across institutions and across state lines, re-entry after stop-out, and changes in enrollment intensities.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes. To learn more, visit http://nscresearchcenter.org.

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