Fall 2020 Undergraduate Enrollment Down 4% Compared to Same Time Last Year

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Fall 2020 Undergraduate Enrollment Down 4% Compared to Same Time Last Year

Enrollment Picture Worsens as More Colleges Report Data, and Number of Freshmen Declines 16%

HERNDON, VA – (OCTOBER 15, 2020) – Roughly one month into the fall 2020 semester, undergraduate enrollment is now running 4% below last year’s level, and the upward trend for graduate enrollment has slipped to 2.7%, according to the latest data by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. As a result, overall postsecondary enrollment is down 3% compared to the same time last year.

“With more data, the downward trends identified in September’s First Look report appear steeper, while also emerging for more states and student groups,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Most strikingly, freshman students are by far the biggest decline of any group from last year, with a decrease of 16.1% nationally and a 22.7% drop at community colleges in particular. First-time students account for 69% of the total drop in undergraduate enrollment.”

This second update for the fall 2020 series, Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information, is based on 9.2 million students or nearly 54% of postsecondary institutions reporting to the Clearinghouse, as of Sept. 24. The next update is scheduled to be released Nov. 12.

Additional results include:

Undergraduate enrollment is down at all types of institutions, except for private for-profit four-year colleges.

Community colleges continue to suffer the most with a decrease of 9.4% percent. Community colleges’ enrollment decline is now nearly nine times their pre-pandemic loss rate (-1.1% for fall 2019 compared to fall 2018). Even more concerning, the number of freshmen also dropped most drastically at community colleges (-22.7%).
Public four-year and private nonprofit four-year colleges show a much smaller drop (-1.4% and – 2.0%, respectively). Freshmen are down far more steeply (-13.7% and -11.8%, respectively).
As the only exception, for-profit four-year colleges are running 3% higher than last fall.
At primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enroll exclusively online even before the pandemic, enrollments are growing at both the undergraduate and graduate levels (+6.8% and +7.2%, respectively), regardless of student age. Particularly, adult students age 25 and older, who make up most of the undergraduates at these institutions increased 5.5 percent, after a 6.3% decline in the year prior to the pandemic.

All student groups identified on a path of decline in the First Look report have fallen further.

American Indian and Native Alaskan students suffered the sharpest decline of all racial/ethnic undergraduate students (-10.7%), followed by Black students (-7.9%), White students (-7.6%), Hispanic students (-6.1%), and Asian students (-4.0%). A double-digit drop continued for international undergraduates (-13.7%).
Male undergraduate enrollment fell by three times the rate of female enrollment (-6.4% vs. -2.2%).
Graduate enrollment grew across all racial/ethnic groups, particularly Hispanic and Black students (14.2% and 9.3%, respectively). International graduate enrollment declined 7.6%.
Preliminary data shows that Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) track closely the national trends for undergraduates overall, with somewhat more larger declines among private nonprofit four-year HBCUs and smaller drops among public two-year HBCUs.

Though undergraduate enrollment fell across all regions, the Midwest suffered the most (-5.7%) followed by the West (-3.9%), South (-3.6%) and Northeast (-3.4%).

Among 47 states for which sufficient data are available, only Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia had more undergraduates compared to last fall while the other 42 states declined, ranging from -0.4% to -15.8%.
26 states fell more than the national average of 4%, including those with a double-digit drop, Rhode Island (-15.8%), New Mexico (-10.6%), and Michigan (-9.7%).
Graduate enrollment is up for 38 states, with 24 states exceeding the 2.7% national average rate of growth. Graduate enrollment increases are most pronounced in Arizona and Mississippi, with both up 16% or more over fall 2019.
Growth in graduate enrollment is more pronounced in the West and South (+5.7% and +4.3%, respectively), followed by the Midwest with a 1.3% increase, while the Northeast has a small decline of 0.9% after an increase of 1.8% in the previous year.

The Research Center’s First Look Fall 2020 report in September showed undergraduate student enrollment declined 2.5%; graduate students increased 3.9%; and postsecondary enrollment as a whole down 1.8%, compared to September 2019. Those results were based on 3.6 million students or nearly 22% of institutions reporting to the Clearinghouse, as of September 10.

The next update to the Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information is scheduled for November 12. Unlike the Research Center’s normal Current Term Enrollment Estimates’ report series, Stay Informed highlights year-over-year changes, using 2018 and 2019 historical data as pre-pandemic baselines and creating fixed panels of institutions that have submitted data as of each month. This allows the Research Center to provide early insights with preliminary data before the full enrollment reporting is completed for the term. The Research Center will update the data monthly, for various subgroups of students, programs, institutions, states, or regions.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Undergraduate Enrollment Down 2.5% and Graduate Students Up 3.9%, Compared to Sept. 2019

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Undergraduate Enrollment Down 2.5% and Graduate Students Up 3.9%, Compared to Sept. 2019

Preliminary Fall 2020 Data Show Undergraduate Students Need More Support During COVID-19 Pandemic

HERNDON, VA – (SEPTEMBER 24, 2020) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center announced today new data that show undergraduate student enrollment declining 2.5%, while graduate students are up 3.9%, as of September 10. As a result, postsecondary enrollment as a whole is down 1.8%, compared to the same time last year.

The results are based on 3.6 million students at 629 colleges or nearly 22% of institutions reporting to the Clearinghouse to date. Updated enrollment will be released monthly throughout the fall as more colleges report their data.

Enrollments are down in all types of institutions at the undergraduate level. Community colleges show the greatest losses of 8%, followed by private nonprofit four-year institutions declining 3.8%. Public four-year institutions are suffering far less with a decrease of 0.4%, although they vary by campus setting, with urban institutions increasing slightly while rural schools fell 4%. Community colleges, on the other hand, suffered universally regardless of location (See Figure 9).

Undergraduate enrollment is running below last year’s level for every racial and ethnic group. American Indian and Native Alaskan students are down 8%; White students and Black students declined 6% each, and both Hispanic and Asian student enrollments dropped more than 3%. Although data are less complete for them, international students appear to have suffered the steepest declines, with non-resident alien undergraduates down 11.2% (See Figure 4).

As an exception to the general declines, graduate enrollments are up, with all racial/ethnic categories seeing increases. Graduate enrollments grew particularly among Hispanic students (14.2%). However, international graduate students fell by 5% (See Figure 4).

“Adding to what we saw in the Summer term enrollments, the fall data continue to show how much higher the stakes are for community college students during disruptions like the pandemic and the subsequent recession,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The picture will become clearer as more data come in, but at this point the large equity gap for students who rely on community colleges for access to higher education is a matter of critical concern.”

At primarily online institutions, where more than 90 percent of students enrolled exclusively online even before the pandemic, undergraduates decreased by 3.5%, and graduate students gained by 3% for an overall decrease of 2.3%. Most racial and ethnic groups saw increases for undergraduate and graduate enrollments, but Black and Native American students declined at these institutions (See Figure 11).

Among 26 states for which sufficient data are available, 19 states show fewer undergraduate students compared to the same time last fall, with enrollment declines ranging from 0.1 percent to 13.9 percent. By contrast, graduate enrollments are up for 21 states, with 15 states exceeding the national average rate of growth of 3.9%. In a handful of states, Arizona, Maryland, North Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia, enrollments are up at both undergraduate and graduate levels. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, however, both undergraduate and graduate enrollments fell (See Figure 5).

With more data from colleges arriving at the Clearinghouse daily, the next update to the Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information research that tracks the impact of COVID-19 on postsecondary enrollments is scheduled for October 15. Unlike the Research Center’s normal Current Term Enrollment Estimates’ report series, Stay Informed highlights year-over-year changes, using 2018 and 2019 historical data as pre-pandemic baselines and creating fixed panels of institutions that have submitted data as of each month. This allows the Research Center to provide early insights with preliminary data before the full enrollment reporting is completed for the term. The Research Center will update the data monthly, for various subgroups of students, programs, institutions, states, or regions.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Community Colleges, For-Profit and Rural Institutions, Black Undergraduates, and Male Undergraduates Suffered Most from Online-Only 2020 Summer Sessions, According to Latest Enrollment Data

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Community Colleges, For-Profit and Rural Institutions, Black Undergraduates, and Male Undergraduates Suffered Most from Online-Only 2020 Summer Sessions, According to Latest Enrollment Data

HERNDON, VA – (SEPTEMBER 1, 2020) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center announced today that with nearly 7 million students enrolled during Summer 2020, community colleges saw enrollment losses of nearly 6% and for-profits’ enrollment declined by 7% over Summer 2019. Meanwhile, public and private nonprofit four-year colleges saw modest enrollment growth of 3% and 4%, respectively.

However, public four-year, rural institutions declined more than 8%, and private nonprofit rural campuses declined by almost 5%. But enrollment at public and private nonprofit four-year institutions in cities increased nearly 6% and those in suburbs grew by 3%.

“These data offer the first opportunity to grasp the full range of effects on students and institutions of the host of disruptions the nation has weathered this summer,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The equity implications for higher education in the fall are becoming more clear: Many of those most affected by the pandemic also appear to be losing access to college classes, even at community colleges and rural institutions that have traditionally served them.”

The new report kicks off a new research series, Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information, that will track the impact of COVID-19 on postsecondary enrollments, using the latest data available. Unlike our normal Current Term Enrollment Estimates report series, Stay Informed highlights year-over-year changes, using 2018 and 2019 historical data as pre-pandemic baselines and creating fixed panels of institutions that have submitted data within each month. This allows us to provide early insights with preliminary data before the full enrollment reporting is completed for the term. The Research Center will update the data monthly, for various subgroups of students, programs, institutions, states, or regions.

Key research findings include:

Black students suffered the steepest declines in undergraduate programs with a decline of 8%, particularly at community colleges with a 11% decline. But Black graduate enrollment increased 3%.
Hispanic undergraduate enrollment increased at all institutions except for community colleges, and Hispanics graduate students increased nearly 13% from last year, the fastest growth of all racial/ethnic groups.
Male undergraduate enrollments dropped overall 5.2% and nearly 14% at community colleges, compared to a decline of less than one percent for women.
At primarily online institutions, where more than 90 percent of student enroll exclusively online, graduate enrollment increased almost 6% and undergraduate enrollments decreased almost 4%. A total of 34 institutions are identified as primarily online, as of Spring 2020, and 28 are included in the Summer 2020 analysis. Primarily online institutions are predominantly private for-profit four-year, multi-state, institutions.
Undergraduate enrollment growth in public and private nonprofit four-year colleges was driven by students aged 18-20, and by high school dual enrollees, with 8% and 17% growth, respectively.

In a precursor to this new report, the Research Center’s June report, “A COVID-19 Supplement to Spring 2020 Current Term Enrollment Estimates,” showed that the pandemic did not appear to have had any major effect on students’ enrollment status changes during the spring term, regardless of demographic characteristics or institution types. However, there were early signs of broader impacts underway, such as more students taking leaves of absence than in pre-pandemic years, particularly African Americans and Hispanics.

To further quantify the impact of COVID-19 on U.S. higher education institutions, the Research Center, with financial grants from Ascendium Education Group and the ECMC Foundation, will launch in late October a new research report series titled, “COVID-19: Transfer, Mobility, and Progress,” that addresses student transfer, mobility, and progress in near-real-time.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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National Student Clearinghouse Research Center to Quantify How the COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts Student Transfer within Higher Ed Over the Next Two Years

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National Student Clearinghouse Research Center to Quantify How the COVID-19 Pandemic Impacts Student Transfer within Higher Ed Over the Next Two Years

Ascendium and ECMC Foundation Grants Support Research of Students’ Transfer, Mobility and Progress in the United States

HERNDON, VA – (JULY 30, 2020) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, with financial grants from Ascendium Education Group and the ECMC Foundation, announced today that the Research Center will launch a new research report series that addresses student transfer, mobility, and progress in near-real-time, to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on higher education in the United States.

The new research series, which will include nine reports extending from Fall 2020 to Summer 2022, will provide rapid response information and context for institutions, policymakers, learners and others seeking to understand how the pandemic is changing higher education, including student success and completion rates.

The Research Center will identify changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By making transfer data and insights accessible online for free, the Research Center will enable schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

“The current upheavals in the postsecondary landscape make transferring far more challenging, affecting both the students seeking to transfer and the institutions supporting them,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The pace of change creates a critical need for real-time data and reliable information, as events upend the plans of students and disrupt the institutions. Education can no longer expect to keep up with today’s tumultuous world while relying on old data. This is why this research will leverage the most current education data available, as reported to the Clearinghouse.”

“Ascendium wants to ensure that learners from low-income backgrounds have equitable opportunities to achieve their postsecondary goals. Many learners transfer between postsecondary institutions, but data show that current transfer policies and practices do not result in equitable outcomes,” said Carolynn Lee, Ascendium’s program officer for the grant. “In the context of COVID-19, Ascendium believes these targeted, timely reports will allow postsecondary leaders and policymakers to make data-driven, equity-focused decisions as they address challenges faced by students in transition.”

“College students face a cloud of uncertainty around many aspects of higher education moving forward. Improving and refining transfer pathways to better meet the needs of students, especially those who have been historically underserved, will be one of the most important issues we address during and after the pandemic,” said Sarah Belnick, Senior Program Director for College Success at ECMC Foundation.

The nine Research Center reports include the following, with dates subject to change:

Early Response Report: Oct. 2020, Representing Fall 2020
End of Term report: Dec. 2020, Representing Fall 2020
Early Response Report: March 2021, Representing Spring 2021
End of Term report: May 2021, Representing Spring 2021
Special Report: Summer 2021, Representing Academic Year 2020-21
Early Response Report: Oct. 2021, Representing Fall 2021
End of Term Report: Dec 2021, Representing Fall 2021
End of Term report: May 2022, Representing Spring 2022
Special Report: Summer 2022

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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How Was College Enrollment Impacted by Shutdowns and Online-Only Classes Amid COVID-19?

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How Was College Enrollment Impacted by Shutdowns and Online-Only Classes Amid COVID-19?

National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Shows Effects on Postsecondary Enrollment

HERNDON, VA – (JUNE 30, 2020) – The latest data shows that the pandemic crisis does not appear to have had any major effect on students’ enrollment statuses during the spring term, regardless of demographic characteristics or institution types, according to a new research report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Even after the campus shutdowns, the numbers of students withdrawing or changing intensity, between full- and part-time, were mostly consistent with prior years.

“Little or no change in enrollment status is a reassuring sign that most college students were able to stay on course during the first two months of the pandemic,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “However, there were early signs of broader impacts that are underway. Data reveals the emergence of small but concerning racial and ethnic patterns, as more students took leaves of absence than in pre-pandemic years, particularly African Americans and Hispanics.”

Main Findings include:

Intra-term changes in enrollment status during spring 2020 were consistent with pre-pandemic years.
Students who increased enrollment intensity (from part-time to higher or full-time) typically did so in January, showing no signs of the pandemic impact. But the peak time for all other types of status changes has shifted this year.
Reduced enrollment intensity peaked in April after the shutdowns, later than in previous years.
While overall withdrawal rate remained at pre-pandemic levels, the withdrawal peaks for community college students shifted from March to April.
More students appeared to take approved leaves of absence, particularly in March and April. These leaves are rare, but the percent taking leaves nearly doubled, to 0.045% of students who started the term. Particularly, African American, and Hispanic students taking leaves increased fastest among all groups.
New enrollments in April 2020 were far below prior years’ April numbers.

The Spring 2020 Current Term Enrollment Estimates Report published in May 2020 showed that, pre-pandemic, the steady national decline in college enrollment over the last few years had slowed slightly, from about 1.5 percent annually to just 0.5 percent this year.

Background information

The new report, A COVID-19 Supplement to Spring 2020 Current Term Enrollment Estimates, serves as a first look at the effects of COVID-19 on postsecondary enrollments, as measured by intra-term status changes, compared to the two previous years, spring 2018 and spring 2019, as the baselines. The supplement report adds the in-pandemic enrollment data from April and May 2020 to the pre-pandemic spring 2020 enrollment report. The research examines all students who enrolled in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the United States as either full time, three-quarters time, half time, or less than half time during the spring term in 2020.

The report’s interactive data dashboard (available on the Research Center website) shows the impacts for different institutions, including Historically Black College and Universities, Hispanic-Serving Institutions, rural or urban institutions, high transfer, or highly vocational community colleges. In addition, the appendix offers intra-term changes by state and by student demographics (age, gender, and race/ethnicity) at both undergraduate and graduate levels, as well as for primarily online institutions.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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