High School Benchmarks 2021 Report Features Gap Year Enrollment Analysis

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High School Benchmarks 2021 Report Features Gap Year Enrollment Analysis

Fewer Class of 2020 High School Gap Year Students Enrolled in College in Fall 2021

HERNDON, VA – (DECEMBER 3, 2021) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center announced today the ninth annual High School Benchmarks report, which features a special analysis of gap year enrollment for 2020 high school graduates who waited until fall 2021 to enroll in college.

“We found no upswing in gap year college enrollment this fall,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the Research Center. “Only 2% of those who did not enroll in college immediately after high school in 2020 showed up as gap year enrollments in fall 2021, strongly suggesting that the pandemic-related concerns that kept many students out of college last year have not abated.”

Key findings include:

  • The overall gap year college enrollment rate for the class of 2020 declined slightly from previous classes, from 2.6% for 2018 and 2.2% for 2019, to just 2.0% of the 2020 class who had not enrolled in their first fall.
  • The gap year enrollment rate in fall 2021 is low regardless of high school characteristics, ranging from 1.1% to 3.2%, a stark contrast with the patterns of disparity found in immediate college enrollment for the class of 2020.
  • Fall 2020 enrollment trend data for 2020 high school graduates, in approximately 8,400 high schools nationwide, further confirms the pandemic effect of the Research Center’s preliminary report issued in March 2021 (See Appendix B, Table 1 for details).

The COVID-19 gap year analysis section of the High School Benchmarks 2021 report provides preliminary estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on gap year enrollment for the 2019 and 2020 graduating classes of high school seniors, compared to the pre-pandemic baseline of the 2018 class. The analysis covers nearly 860,000 graduates and 3,500 high schools that consistently reported their graduates within a similar time frame each year from 2018 through 2020. It shows their immediate fall and gap year (following fall) enrollments at the approximately 67 percent of colleges that reported enrollment data as of October in each year from 2019 through 2021.

The High School Benchmarks 2021 – National College Progression Rates examines college enrollment for the high school graduating class of 2020, persistence for the class of 2018, and completion for the class of 2014. These data are the most relevant benchmarks for monitoring and evaluating progress in assisting students to make the high school to college transition and earn a credential in a timely manner. In spring 2022, the Research Center will issue a Special COVID-19 Analysis on the high school class of 2021 for their enrollment in fall 2021.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of fall 2019. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Undergraduate Enrollment Declines Nearly 8% and Community Colleges Drop 15% Since Fall 2019

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Undergraduate Enrollment Declines Nearly 8% and Community Colleges Drop 15% Since Fall 2019

California, Indiana, Mississippi, and New Mexico Feature the Largest Enrollment Declines

HERNDON, VA – (NOVEMBER 18, 2021) – Roughly two months into the second fall semester of the pandemic, postsecondary enrollment is now running 2.6% below last year’s level, according to the latest research by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Undergraduate enrollment has declined 3.5% so far this fall, with a total two-year decline of 7.8% since 2019. However, graduate enrollment has grown 2.1%, which maintains the 2.7% upward trend from last fall.

The updated figures released today reflect 13.7 million undergraduate and graduate students combined, as reported by 74% of more than 3,600 Title IV degree-granting institutions that participate in the Clearinghouse as of October 21, 2021.

Undergraduate enrollment has declined across all institution sectors. Enrollment decreases in public four-year and private for-profit four-year institutions were steeper than last fall. This fall, public four-year institutions declined 2.5% vs a 1.6% loss last fall. Private for-profit four-year institutions this fall dropped 8.5% vs a 2.6% drop last fall. Enrollment at private nonprofit four-year institutions remained largely stable (-0.6%) while community college enrollment continued to fall, but at a slower rate than last fall (-6.0% vs. -9.4% last fall). Community college enrollment is now down a total of 14.8% since 2019.

Meanwhile, primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enrolled exclusively online prior to the pandemic, saw both undergraduate and graduate enrollments decline steeply (-8.9% and -8.2%, respectively) across gender and age groups, reversing growth experienced previous fall.

“Today’s data are largely consistent with last month’s report,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “And with more schools counted, the continued downward trends raise even more troubling concerns for students and institutions struggling to recover from the first pandemic year.”

Enrollment continued to fall regardless of institution sectors, with the steepest drops in the private for-profit four-year and public two-year sectors. Within the four-year institution sector, highly selective colleges enrolled 3.1% more undergraduates this fall while less selective institutions continued a downward trend.

Among 46 states for which sufficient data are available, 41 saw drops in undergraduate enrollment compared to last fall. Among the states with the steepest declines were Mississippi (-9.2%), Indiana (-7.1%), New Mexico (-6.8%), and California (-6.5%), each of which also had double-digit decreases since 2019. Graduate enrollment is up in 40 states, with Maine, Georgia, Massachusetts, and Florida all experiencing growth over 6% this fall.

Last month’s research revealed, with 50.5% of institutions, representing 8.4 million students, reporting to the Clearinghouse as of September 23, undergraduate enrollment showed a decline of 3.2% since fall 2020. This echoed last fall’s 3.4% drop.

Other research updates include:

Overall undergraduate enrollments are down across all racial and ethnic groups, with White, Black, and Native American students falling the most, at about 5% to 6 % this fall. Nonetheless, at private nonprofit, four-year institutions, Asian (+2.7%), Latinx (+1.0%), Native American (+1.1%), and international student (+7.9%) enrollment grew. Enrollment continued to decrease in all racial and ethnic groups at community colleges.

International undergraduate students show another 3.1% enrollment drop this fall, but at the graduate level, a 12.7% increase fully makes up for the losses experienced last year (-7.0%). Graduate enrollment among Asian and Latinx student also continued growing this fall (+8.8% and +6.3% respectively).

Over the two-year period since 2019, both public, four- and two-year institutions saw larger declines in full-time than part-time enrollment (-4.8% vs. -0.8% for public four-year and -17.6% vs. -13.2% for public two-year institutions). At private nonprofit four-year institutions, there was a small growth in full-time undergraduates this fall (+0.2%).

Last year’s growth in MBA and education master’s program enrollments reversed this fall, with both majors showing enrollment declines (-1.4% and -3.9%, respectively). Growth in health fields slowed from last year (+0.7% vs. +5.3% last fall) but computer and information sciences, engineering, and biological and biomedical sciences experienced large growth this fall (+19.9%, +9.7%, and +9.5%, respectively).

For other details, review the Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information.

In addition, the fall 2021 Current Term Enrollment Estimates is scheduled to come out on or around Wednesday, Dec. 15.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of fall 2019. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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National Student Clearinghouse Launches New Pilot to Map Student Transcripts to Employer-Verified Skill Sets

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National Student Clearinghouse Launches New Pilot to Map Student Transcripts to Employer-Verified Skill Sets

Education nonprofit engages data services firm AstrumU to help connect education and skills to career outcomes

HERNDON, VA – (NOVEMBER 15, 2021) – The National Student Clearinghouse and AstrumU today announced a new innovation pilot designed to help schools and learners better understand how postsecondary education transcripts and records connect to outcomes in the workforce.

Over the next year, the National Student Clearinghouse — which works with more than 3,600 colleges and universities — will evaluate AstrumU’s technology and how it can support data exchange initiatives for higher ed. The two companies have established a pilot to look for opportunities to relieve data exchange constraints and provide improved access to trusted data and insights for institutions and learners. The Clearinghouse and AstrumU expect to leverage insights from the pilot to further serve the education community to identify where machine learning can be leveraged to streamline the exchange of learner information.

“As we serve education professionals and students in an emerging era of digital credentialing, it’s critical that we discover and implement new ways to interpret and transform information to benefit institutions, learners, and industry,” said Rob Groot, managing director of learner mobility and experience at the National Student Clearinghouse. “This pilot initiative builds on our long history as a trusted, nonprofit partner in the education industry for nearly 30 years. Our aim is to develop new services with AstrumU that will unlock more value for the learners, the institutions, employers and public sector stakeholders who rely on information and Clearinghouse data for business decisions.”

AstrumU’s platform can ingest verified data directly from both schools, and employers, to understand—and predict—how specific skills, courses, and even internships or service-learning experiences translate into career outcomes. Its AI-powered recommendation engine uses predictive models to identify and recommend high-value career paths within reach for each student based on their academic and professional experiences.

“Emerging technologies such as machine learning and artificial intelligence are now making it possible to analyze and understand the connections between transcripts and credentials and their value in the labor market,” said Kaj Pederson, chief technology officer, AstrumU. “This initiative is about democratizing insight into education-to-career pathways for institutions, students, and prospective employers.”

Originally incubated at the University of Kansas, AstrumU’s suite of tools for learners, and advisors are now used by an initial cohort of colleges and universities across the country that includes the University of Kansas, the University of Washington, Pepperdine University, American University, and others.

About the National Student Clearinghouse®

The National Student Clearinghouse, a nonprofit formed in 1993, is the trusted source for and leading provider of higher education verifications and electronic education record exchanges. Besides working with nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, the Clearinghouse also provides thousands of high schools and districts with continuing collegiate enrollment, progression, and completion statistics on their alumni. For more details, visit studentclearinghouse.org.

About AstrumU

AstrumU translates educational experiences into economic opportunity. We are on a mission to quantify the return on education investment for learners, education providers, and employers. We help institutions measure the value created for incoming and returning students, while assisting them in securing industry partnerships that lead students seamlessly into high-demand career pathways. Institutions partner with AstrumU to drive enrollment and increase alumni and corporate engagement, while extending economic mobility opportunities inclusively to all learners.

Contact: media@studentclearinghouse.org and media@astrumu.com.

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Undergraduate Enrollment Declines Show No Signs of Recovery From 2020

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Undergraduate Enrollment Declines Show No Signs of Recovery From 2020

Undergrads Decline additional 3.2%

Community Colleges Drop 5.6% while Public Four-Year Colleges Fall 2.3%

HERNDON, VA – (OCTOBER 26, 2021) – According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, fall postsecondary enrollment numbers show no signs of recovery from last year’s declines, according to early data released today in an update to Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information.

With 50.5% of institutions, representing 8.4 million students, reporting to the Clearinghouse as of September 23, undergraduate enrollment continues to decline, falling by 3.2% since fall 2020. This echoes last fall’s drop of 3.4%.

Combined with fall 2020’s declines, the number of undergraduate students has now fallen by a total of 6.5% from two years ago in fall 2019. Graduate student enrollment continued to grow, reaching 2.1% above last year’s level, for a total increase of 5.3% over two years. Overall postsecondary enrollment (undergrad and grad combined) declined by 2.3% this year, for a total two-year decline of 4.6%.

“Far from filling the hole of last year’s enrollment declines, we are still digging it deeper,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “A year and a half into the COVID-19 pandemic, we continue to see significant nationwide declines in undergraduate students, and community colleges remain the most adversely affected sector, experiencing a 14.1% total enrollment decline since fall 2019.”

Undergraduate enrollment is down in all sectors, particularly among public two- and four-year colleges, and private for-profits. With a lower institutional coverage rate in this early data, however, the for-profit results should be interpreted with caution. Public two-year enrollment continued to slide (-5.6%) although not as sharply as the enrollment shock seen last fall (-9%). Public four-year enrollment, however, has fallen more this fall (-2.3% vs. -0.8% last fall) and private for-profit four-year college enrollment fell precipitously (-12.7%) in contrast to last year’s small drop (-0.3%) (see Figure 1). At primarily online institutions, undergraduate and graduate enrollments dropped by 5.4% and 13.6%, respectively, largely erasing the gains of the previous year (+8.6% last fall for both levels) (see Figure 25).

Meanwhile, undergraduates at private nonprofit four-years fared better, falling only 0.7% this fall. There was a sharp disparity within the sector, however, as the most highly selective institutions grew 4.3% to return to pre-pandemic levels (now +1.8% from two years ago). All other selectivity categories experienced further declines of 1.8% to 2.5 % from last fall. A similar divide emerged among public four-year institutions: Highly selective state flagships increased 1.0% while less selective publics fell 5.2% (see Figure 5).

Nationwide, freshman enrollment has declined 3.1% this fall. While the rate of decline is less than one-third that of the previous fall (-9.5%), it remains far from having stabilized, much less showing the level of increase that would have been required to restore the losses from 2020’s entering class. Public two-year institutions again showed the sharpest freshman enrollment declines among the three largest sectors (-6.1%). This year’s freshman class at community colleges is now 20.8% below 2019’s, while the first-year enrollment numbers at all institutions are 12.3% smaller than in 2019 (see Figure 7).

White, Black, and Native American undergraduates declined more than other racial and ethnic U.S. student groups, each falling between 4.4% and 5.1%. Latinx and Asian students fell at about half those rates (-2.4% and -2.2%, respectively, see Figure 19). Whites and Blacks also showed the largest declines among freshmen (-8.6% and -7.5%, respectively, see Figure 10).

Male and female students saw similar drops this fall in undergraduate enrollment (about -3.5%). Male enrollment declines of -3.5% were smaller than last fall’s (-6.0%), particularly at community colleges (-14.1% last fall vs. -4.7% this fall), whereas female enrollment fell more than last fall (-1.8%), most notably at public four-year colleges (+0.3% last fall vs. -2.3% this fall). Cumulatively, male enrollment decline during the pandemic is now -9.3%, four percentage points steeper than the female decline of -5.3%, over the two years from 2019 to 2021 (see Figures 2 and 18).

Undergraduate enrollment fell for every age group. Declines were steepest among 25- to 29-year-olds (-8.3%). Traditional college-age enrollment (18-24) declined across all sectors (-2.6% for age 18-20; -3.1% for age 21-24). Dual enrollment of high school students increased 0.7 percent nationally after a 3.6 percent drop last fall, but the numbers still deteriorated at community colleges (-0.2% vs. -5.3% last fall), which enroll roughly two-thirds of all dual enrollees (see Figure 17).

Bachelor’s degree-seeking students in the top three common majors (business, health care, and liberal arts) all declined this fall. Notably, students enrolled in healthcare fields have reversed their gains from last fall (+2.5% last fall vs. -3.6% this fall) (see Figure 21).

The next update to the Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information research that tracks the impact of COVID-19 on postsecondary enrollments is scheduled for late November. As with all Stay Informed releases, today’s data are preliminary and subject to change as more colleges submit their data to the Clearinghouse.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of fall 2019. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Transfer Student Disparities Grow Across Racial and Ethnic Lines During the Pandemic

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Transfer Student Disparities Grow Across Racial and Ethnic Lines During the Pandemic

Higher education lost about 191,500 transfer students or 8.4% compared to the previous year

HERNDON, VA – (AUGUST 31, 2021) – In the 2020-21 academic year, higher education lost about 191,500 transfer students, or 8.4% compared to the previous year, according to research released today by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. The COVID-19: Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Academic Year 2020-21 Report, the fifth in the series, reflects the pandemic’s full-blown impact on postsecondary students.

This is the first comprehensive report to assess effects of the pandemic on student transfer during the entire academic year, in which 2.1 million undergraduate students transferred to a college other than their last enrolled institution between July 2020 and June 2021.

“The bright spot for students is the increase in upward transfer into highly selective four-year colleges and universities,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “As transfers overall decline and equity gaps grow, however, this small segment alone cannot erase the larger concerns of diminished opportunity for students.”

How enrollment and transfer patterns continue to persist or diverge going into the upcoming academic year remains to be seen, but the Research Center expects as the pandemic continues, there will likely be further divergences among students and institutions, deepening the longstanding concerns over disparities in student mobility and progress.

2020-2021 Year in Review Highlights include:

  • While every pathway of transfer suffered declines, the rate of decline was not the same. Upward transfers, moving from two-year to four-year colleges, held up relatively well, with only a 1.3% decline or about 11,900 student losses. Pandemic-driven losses were more notable in the fall. In fact, upward transfers increased in spring.
  • Disparities in upward transfer mobility increased during the pandemic year. Asian and Latinx upward transfers grew (+5.9% and +1.4%, respectively), but Black and Native American upward transfers fell further than pre-pandemic decline (-6.1% and -4.1%, respectively) while White students saw a drop consistent with the pre-pandemic rate of decline (-4.4%).
  • Only highly selective institutions expanded their total transfer enrollment for the year, thanks to an unusually large one-year growth in upward transfer (10.3%). This growth included all student groups, irrespective of gender, race, and ethnicity, or transferring within states or into different states (see the figure on the following page).
  • Patterns of upward transfer mobility along institutional selectivity, gender, and race and ethnicity shifted over the course of the academic year, most notably changing from highly selective colleges leading the growth of upward transfers in fall 2020, to marked increases in Latinx upward transfers in spring 2021 that were more concentrated at less competitive institutions.
  • As upward transfer inflows grow at highly selective colleges and a few leading primarily online institutions, their persistence post-transfer appears to be suffering. In contrast, no significant persistence rate drops attributable to the pandemic are found nationally (all transfer pathways combined).
  • Hispanic-Serving Institutions (HSIs) had substantial transfer student losses this year (-70,400 students, -11.8%), while Historically Black Colleges and Universities remained largely unaffected. Both saw post-transfer persistence rates falling due to the pandemic, except that HSIs made a small gain in the latter part of the year. Following national patterns, declines in mobility at these institutions were largely driven by men.

Year-Over-Year Change in Fall Upward Transfers by Institutional Selectivity

Note: The term “Highly Selective Institutions” refers to the top two categories combined, Most Competitive and Highly Competitive according to the Barron’s selectivity index.

By The Numbers (July 2020 – June 2021):

There were approximately 2.1 million transfer students and 11.8 million non-transfer students. Fall transfer students accounted for 64% of the total transfer enrollment for the academic year.

Transfer enrollment fell by 191,500 students or -8.4%; non-transfer enrollment fell by 456,100 students or -3.7%. The previous year, transfer enrollment had dropped 69,300 students or -2.9%.

All transfer pathways were affected but in different ways:

  • Lateral transfers fell 114,400 or -11.9% (-38,700 or -3.9% the previous year)
    • Between 2-year colleges, -83,600 or -15.2% (-27,600 or -4.8% the previous year)
    • Between 4-year colleges, -30,800 or -7.5% (-11,100 or -2.6% the previous year)
  • Reverse transfers fell 65,200 or -16.2% (-19,200 or -4.5% the previous year)
  • Upward transfers fell 11,900 or -1.3% (-11,400 or -1.2% the previous year)
    • Fall – fell by 15,500 or -2.3% (-5,800 or -0.8% the previous year)
    • Spring – increased by 2,400 or +0.9% (-8,700 or –3.2% the previous year)
  • Lateral transfers account for 60% of the total decline (44% in two-year colleges and 16% in four-year colleges); reverse transfers account for 34%; and upward transfers account for 6%.

Transfer enrollment fell more for males:

  • Males fell by 112,900 or -12.1% (-37,100 or -3.8% the previous year)
  • Females fell by 76,200 or -5.8% (-32,200 or -2.4% the previous year)

Black transfer students fell at the sharpest rate of all groups:

  • Whites declined by 86,700 or -9.1% (-59,900 or -5.9% the previous year)
  • Blacks declined by 39,500 or -12.9% (-15,400 or -4.8% the previous year)
  • Latinx declined by 31,900 or -8.4% (+3,300 or +0.9% the previous year)
  • Asians declined by 4,500 or -4.2% (-2,100 or -1.9% the previous year)
  • Native Americans declined by 1,900 or -9.9% (-1,000 or -4.9% the previous year)

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report series, with support from Ascendium Education Group and ECMC Foundation, identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By providing the most up-to-date information about student transfer available online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries, while maintaining the confidentiality and privacy of student records. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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