Spring Undergraduate Enrollment Down 5.9%; Steepest Decline So Far Since the Pandemic

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Spring Undergraduate Enrollment Down 5.9%; Steepest Decline So Far Since the Pandemic

Community College Enrollment Declines 11.3% Nationwide

Only Nebraska, Utah, and West Virginia Show Gains in Undergraduate Enrollment

HERNDON, VA – (APRIL 29, 2021) – Spring undergraduate enrollment is down 5.9% compared to the same time last year, according to the latest research by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. This is the steepest decline in undergraduate enrollment since the beginning of the pandemic.

Undergraduate enrollment fell further across all institution types, with community colleges experiencing a double-digit decline for the first time during this pandemic, -11.3% compared to -9.5% last fall.

Overall postsecondary enrollment is down 4.2% from a year ago, while graduate enrollment continued to grow 4.4% nationwide. The research released today is based on data as of March 25, 2021, reflecting 12.6 million students and 76% of institutions that report to the Clearinghouse.

“The continuing slide in community college enrollments is of great concern,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “In a sign of potentially long-lasting impact on the level of skills and credentials in the workforce, there is still no age group showing increases at community colleges, even after a full year of pandemic and related unemployment.”

Research highlights include:

Associate degree enrollment saw a 10.9% drop and bachelor’s degree enrollment declined 2.2%. In contrast, master’s and doctoral degree enrollments are up 5.2% and 3.6%, respectively.
Traditional college-age students, particularly those aged 18 to 20, saw the largest decline of all age groups (-7.2%). 18- to 20-year-olds make up the largest share of undergraduates overall (40.9%). The decline was especially pronounced at community colleges (-14.6%).
At primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enrolled exclusively online prior to the pandemic, both undergraduate and graduate enrollments increased more than the pre-pandemic rate of growth.
Only three states made gains in undergraduate enrollment: Nebraska (+1%), Utah (+0.9%), and West Virginia (+0.6%). In 25 states, undergraduate enrollment declined more than the national average (-5.9%), with five dropping by double-digits (Alaska, Delaware, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota).
Graduate enrollment is up in all states except Alaska, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and New York. The rate of growth was most pronounced for Mississippi (+18.8%), followed by Virginia (+12.6%), and West Virginia (+11.7%). The South is seeing larger gains in graduate students this spring (+7.8%) than any other region (West +4.8%, Midwest +1.8%, and Northeast +1.6%).

Other research results include:

By race and ethnicity, Native Americans continued to experience the greatest decline of any racial and ethnic group among undergraduates, having dropped 13% this spring. Declines are smallest among Asian students (-4.8%), while White, Black and Latinx students fell by roughly equal levels (-8.5%, -8.8% and -7.3%, respectively). The largest enrollment swing occurred for Latinx students at both community colleges (+1.7% last spring vs. -13.7% this spring) and public four-year colleges (+2.1% vs. -1.9%). At community colleges, only Latinx enrollment grew before the pandemic.
Male undergraduates are increasingly falling behind their female counterparts, but primarily online institutions have been the only exception. This spring, male undergraduate enrollment is up 3.5 % at these institutions, compared to 1.4 % for female enrollment.
Enrollment in health professions and related clinical sciences programs fared the best this spring among the top five most common major fields for those pursuing associate degrees (-3.7%) and undergraduate certificates (+2.0%). Among the top 10 bachelor’s degree programs, psychology, computer and information sciences and support services, and education majors increased more than health related majors.
Graduate-level education programs are flourishing this spring in all types of credentials. Master’s degree and doctoral degree enrollments rose by 4% and 8%, respectively, from a year ago. Graduate programs in education, particularly at the doctoral level, increased by 8.2% after increasing 1.7% last spring. MBA enrollments have seen a 7.6% increase this spring after a 0.5% decline last spring. Science and engineering master’s enrollment increased 3.3% this spring.

For additional information, listen to the Research Center’s recent webinar about the pandemics’ impact on college enrollments.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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New Research: Spring 2021 Transfer Enrollment Declines 3.8 Times Larger Than Last Spring

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New Research: Spring 2021 Transfer Enrollment Declines 3.8 Times Larger Than Last Spring

COVID-19 Accelerated Transfer Decline for White and Black Students, Male Students, and Traditional College-Age Students

HERNDON, VA – (APRIL 12, 2021) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today new research showing transfer enrollment is down 7.9% this spring, 3.8 times larger than last spring, which declined 2.1%. Transfer enrollment declines are especially steep in the community college sector with a 15.2% drop, but transfer enrollments at public four-year colleges remain stable from last spring.

“Transfer enrollment declines this spring are largely attributable to lower enrollment levels last fall and a higher fall-to-spring attrition rate during COVID-19,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “As the pandemic continues to shift the postsecondary landscape, colleges and universities must address the needs of the students who are most impacted.”

Other highlights from the COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: First Look Spring 2021 Report include:

Students are less mobile along all transfer pathways, except for upward transfer where students grew 3% this spring over pre-pandemic levels. Both reverse and lateral transfer suffered steep enrollment declines of 21% and 9.2%, respectively.
Transfer enrollment decline is more evident among White and Black students than their Hispanic and Asian peers. Hispanic transfer enrollment currently shows the strongest growth in the public four-year sector.
With gender disparities growing across all age groups, transfer declines are larger for men, especially in upward transfer.
Transfer declined for continuing students at twice the rate of returning students this spring (-10.2% and -4.9%, respectively, from a year ago). Continuing students transferring to community colleges decreased 20.8%, ten times the pre-pandemic rate of decline.

Summary and Implications

Last fall, the Research Center found a dampening of student transfer during the pandemic, along with signs of disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged students. A year into the pandemic these trends have largely persisted into the spring and all transfer pathways continue to be impacted. There are several noteworthy patterns to know.

A ripple effect from last fall’s enrollment decline combined with an increase in the fall to spring attrition rate during COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented 5.9% decline this spring for continuing students. In contrast, there was little change in former students returning this spring after a stop-out.

In both the continuing and returning student categories, transfer enrollment declines this spring are largely borne by the community college sector—the worst hit sector by COVID-19. Community colleges have tended to lose enrollments because of growing upward transfers, fewer reverse transfers and diminishing incoming enrollments of new students.

Finally, COVID-19 accelerated the decline in transfer for White and Black students, male students, and 18- to 24-year-old students, especially in the community college sector. This suggests that even traditional-age students who were affected by constrained student transfer and mobility by the pandemic have faced unexpected hurdles in their postsecondary access and success.

Background

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: First Look Spring 2021 Report, the third report in the series, offers a first look into the spring 2021 student transfer patterns as of February 25. This report focuses on year-over-year changes within a fixed panel of institutions representing 74% of the Clearinghouse universe and 8.8 million undergraduate students, including 532,000 transfer students. These preliminary results will be updated as more data are received later in the spring.

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report series, with support from Ascendium Education Group and ECMC Foundation, identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By providing the most up-to-date information about student transfer available online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

The next Transfer Report is scheduled for May 2021. Attend the Research Center’s webinar on April 21 at 1 pm ET to further understand the impact of the pandemic on college enrollment.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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