Transfer Enrollment Decline of Nearly 10% from Last Spring Marks Steepest Drop Since the Pandemic Started

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Transfer Enrollment Decline of Nearly 10% from Last Spring Marks Steepest Drop Since the Pandemic Started

White, Black, Latinx, and Asian transfer students all fared better at public four-year colleges but worsened at community colleges this spring

HERNDON, VA – (JUNE 3, 2021) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today research that shows COVID-19’s impact on colleges and universities nationwide is solidifying. With 94% of Clearinghouse institutions reporting, transfer enrollment at community colleges continues to be hit hardest by the pandemic, regardless of student group, gender, race and ethnicity, or age, while public four-year institutions remain the least affected among all sectors.

“This semester marks the steepest year-over-year decline in overall transfer enrollment since the pandemic began, with a 10% drop over last spring in the number of students who changed institutions from their most recent prior enrollment. As a comparison, non-transfer students declined by only 6.5%,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Making sure that students remain able to access all available opportunities to reach their goals, including through transfer, is critical to supporting their success amid the disruptions of the pandemic.”

At community colleges, transfer enrollment declined 16.3% this spring, a two-fold increase over last year’s decline of 8%. The decline among non-transfer students was also steep at 13%. White, Black, Latinx, and Asian transfer enrollment all worsened at community colleges, while they each fared better at public four-year colleges compared to their pre-pandemic transfer trends.

At public four-year colleges, White and Black transfer students declined 6.2% and 2.8%, respectively, though their declines were smaller than in the previous year. Latinx and Asian transfer students grew nearly 2%, benefitting from increased upward transfer opportunities. Latinx transfer students saw the largest percentage point swing of any racial/ethnic category in the public four-year sector, jumping from a decrease of 2.4% last spring to a 1.8% increase this spring.

Other COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: Final Look Spring 2021 Report Highlights Include:

Upward transfer from two-year to four-year institutions was the only mobility pathway to increase, up 1.5% this spring after a 5.5% decline last spring. Steep declines were observed for reverse transfer (-18%) and lateral transfer (-12.6%).
Traditional college-age students (18- to 24-year-olds) were far less mobile than adult students, having dropped 13.6% in transfer enrollment compared to a 2.5% drop for those 30 and older.
At public four-year institutions, transfer enrollment fell much less than before the pandemic (-1.5% vs. -6%), and by less than half the rate of decline among non-transfers (-1.5% vs. -3.3%).
Male transfer students continued to drop during the pandemic, regardless of age group. Overall transfer enrollments among men fell at double the rate of women (-13.7% and -6.5%, respectively) after dropping at similar rates last spring (-7.2% and -5.9%, respectively).
In the previous spring, upward transfer enrollment for women continuing from the fall was declining slightly more than for men (-9.8% vs. -8.2%). This spring, however, the two diverged sharply (+7.3% for women vs. -5.1% for men). Upward transfers overall (including returning students) also increased for traditional college-age students (+7.6%), students aged 30 and older (+3.7%), women (+4.3%), Latinx (+3.2%), and Asian students (+5.8%) while declining for men (-2.8%), Black (-1.2%), and White (-.1%) students.

Background Information

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: Final Look Spring 2021 Report, the fourth in the series, is an end-of-term report for spring 2021. The report focuses on year-over-year changes within a fixed panel of institutions that represent 94% of the Clearinghouse universe of institutions and 11.3 million undergraduate students (including 737,000 transfer students) reported as of April 22. In summer 2021, the Research Center will provide a more complete picture of transfer and mobility trends based on the full academic year’s data.

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report series, with support from Ascendium Education Group and ECMC Foundation, identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By providing the most up-to-date information about student transfer available online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Spring Undergraduate Enrollment Down 5.9%; Steepest Decline So Far Since the Pandemic

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Spring Undergraduate Enrollment Down 5.9%; Steepest Decline So Far Since the Pandemic

Community College Enrollment Declines 11.3% Nationwide

Only Nebraska, Utah, and West Virginia Show Gains in Undergraduate Enrollment

HERNDON, VA – (APRIL 29, 2021) – Spring undergraduate enrollment is down 5.9% compared to the same time last year, according to the latest research by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. This is the steepest decline in undergraduate enrollment since the beginning of the pandemic.

Undergraduate enrollment fell further across all institution types, with community colleges experiencing a double-digit decline for the first time during this pandemic, -11.3% compared to -9.5% last fall.

Overall postsecondary enrollment is down 4.2% from a year ago, while graduate enrollment continued to grow 4.4% nationwide. The research released today is based on data as of March 25, 2021, reflecting 12.6 million students and 76% of institutions that report to the Clearinghouse.

“The continuing slide in community college enrollments is of great concern,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “In a sign of potentially long-lasting impact on the level of skills and credentials in the workforce, there is still no age group showing increases at community colleges, even after a full year of pandemic and related unemployment.”

Research highlights include:

Associate degree enrollment saw a 10.9% drop and bachelor’s degree enrollment declined 2.2%. In contrast, master’s and doctoral degree enrollments are up 5.2% and 3.6%, respectively.
Traditional college-age students, particularly those aged 18 to 20, saw the largest decline of all age groups (-7.2%). 18- to 20-year-olds make up the largest share of undergraduates overall (40.9%). The decline was especially pronounced at community colleges (-14.6%).
At primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enrolled exclusively online prior to the pandemic, both undergraduate and graduate enrollments increased more than the pre-pandemic rate of growth.
Only three states made gains in undergraduate enrollment: Nebraska (+1%), Utah (+0.9%), and West Virginia (+0.6%). In 25 states, undergraduate enrollment declined more than the national average (-5.9%), with five dropping by double-digits (Alaska, Delaware, New Mexico, Oregon, and South Dakota).
Graduate enrollment is up in all states except Alaska, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and New York. The rate of growth was most pronounced for Mississippi (+18.8%), followed by Virginia (+12.6%), and West Virginia (+11.7%). The South is seeing larger gains in graduate students this spring (+7.8%) than any other region (West +4.8%, Midwest +1.8%, and Northeast +1.6%).

Other research results include:

By race and ethnicity, Native Americans continued to experience the greatest decline of any racial and ethnic group among undergraduates, having dropped 13% this spring. Declines are smallest among Asian students (-4.8%), while White, Black and Latinx students fell by roughly equal levels (-8.5%, -8.8% and -7.3%, respectively). The largest enrollment swing occurred for Latinx students at both community colleges (+1.7% last spring vs. -13.7% this spring) and public four-year colleges (+2.1% vs. -1.9%). At community colleges, only Latinx enrollment grew before the pandemic.
Male undergraduates are increasingly falling behind their female counterparts, but primarily online institutions have been the only exception. This spring, male undergraduate enrollment is up 3.5 % at these institutions, compared to 1.4 % for female enrollment.
Enrollment in health professions and related clinical sciences programs fared the best this spring among the top five most common major fields for those pursuing associate degrees (-3.7%) and undergraduate certificates (+2.0%). Among the top 10 bachelor’s degree programs, psychology, computer and information sciences and support services, and education majors increased more than health related majors.
Graduate-level education programs are flourishing this spring in all types of credentials. Master’s degree and doctoral degree enrollments rose by 4% and 8%, respectively, from a year ago. Graduate programs in education, particularly at the doctoral level, increased by 8.2% after increasing 1.7% last spring. MBA enrollments have seen a 7.6% increase this spring after a 0.5% decline last spring. Science and engineering master’s enrollment increased 3.3% this spring.

For additional information, listen to the Research Center’s recent webinar about the pandemics’ impact on college enrollments.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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New Research: Spring 2021 Transfer Enrollment Declines 3.8 Times Larger Than Last Spring

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New Research: Spring 2021 Transfer Enrollment Declines 3.8 Times Larger Than Last Spring

COVID-19 Accelerated Transfer Decline for White and Black Students, Male Students, and Traditional College-Age Students

HERNDON, VA – (APRIL 12, 2021) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today new research showing transfer enrollment is down 7.9% this spring, 3.8 times larger than last spring, which declined 2.1%. Transfer enrollment declines are especially steep in the community college sector with a 15.2% drop, but transfer enrollments at public four-year colleges remain stable from last spring.

“Transfer enrollment declines this spring are largely attributable to lower enrollment levels last fall and a higher fall-to-spring attrition rate during COVID-19,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “As the pandemic continues to shift the postsecondary landscape, colleges and universities must address the needs of the students who are most impacted.”

Other highlights from the COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: First Look Spring 2021 Report include:

Students are less mobile along all transfer pathways, except for upward transfer where students grew 3% this spring over pre-pandemic levels. Both reverse and lateral transfer suffered steep enrollment declines of 21% and 9.2%, respectively.
Transfer enrollment decline is more evident among White and Black students than their Hispanic and Asian peers. Hispanic transfer enrollment currently shows the strongest growth in the public four-year sector.
With gender disparities growing across all age groups, transfer declines are larger for men, especially in upward transfer.
Transfer declined for continuing students at twice the rate of returning students this spring (-10.2% and -4.9%, respectively, from a year ago). Continuing students transferring to community colleges decreased 20.8%, ten times the pre-pandemic rate of decline.

Summary and Implications

Last fall, the Research Center found a dampening of student transfer during the pandemic, along with signs of disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged students. A year into the pandemic these trends have largely persisted into the spring and all transfer pathways continue to be impacted. There are several noteworthy patterns to know.

A ripple effect from last fall’s enrollment decline combined with an increase in the fall to spring attrition rate during COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented 5.9% decline this spring for continuing students. In contrast, there was little change in former students returning this spring after a stop-out.

In both the continuing and returning student categories, transfer enrollment declines this spring are largely borne by the community college sector—the worst hit sector by COVID-19. Community colleges have tended to lose enrollments because of growing upward transfers, fewer reverse transfers and diminishing incoming enrollments of new students.

Finally, COVID-19 accelerated the decline in transfer for White and Black students, male students, and 18- to 24-year-old students, especially in the community college sector. This suggests that even traditional-age students who were affected by constrained student transfer and mobility by the pandemic have faced unexpected hurdles in their postsecondary access and success.

Background

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: First Look Spring 2021 Report, the third report in the series, offers a first look into the spring 2021 student transfer patterns as of February 25. This report focuses on year-over-year changes within a fixed panel of institutions representing 74% of the Clearinghouse universe and 8.8 million undergraduate students, including 532,000 transfer students. These preliminary results will be updated as more data are received later in the spring.

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report series, with support from Ascendium Education Group and ECMC Foundation, identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By providing the most up-to-date information about student transfer available online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

The next Transfer Report is scheduled for May 2021. Attend the Research Center’s webinar on April 21 at 1 pm ET to further understand the impact of the pandemic on college enrollment.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Fall 2020 College Enrollment Update for the High School Graduating Class of 2020

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Fall 2020 College Enrollment Update for the High School Graduating Class of 2020

6.8% fewer students attending college immediately after high school this past fall, an unprecedented one-year decline

HERNDON, VA – (MARCH 25, 2021) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today an update to the High School Benchmarks 2020 COVID-19 Special Analysis, showing a 6.8% decline of high school graduates attending college immediately after high school this past fall, an unprecedented one-year decline. This decline is more than four times larger than the 2019 pre-pandemic rate, but less than the 21.7% estimate reported in December 2020 preliminary report. The pattern of disparities among high schools of different characteristics remains largely the same as originally reported.

This new analysis is based on the addition of approximately 50% more data from high schools and colleges, and restated to correct a process error that resulted in an overestimate of the rate of decline in college enrollment counts.

The updated High School Benchmarks’ data covers approximately 860,000 graduates, from nearly 3,500 high schools, and their immediate fall enrollments in 87% of all postsecondary institutions that participate in the Clearinghouse. In addition to the main findings described below, detailed information about participant high school profiles and enrollment results can be found in the Appendix.

KEY FINDINGS

The pandemic disproportionately affected graduates of low-income, high-poverty, and high-minority high schools, with their enrollments dropping more steeply than their more advantaged counterparts. Enrollment declines were 2.3 times steeper for low-income high schools compared to higher-income schools.
Urban and rural schools showed roughly equal rates of decline, and a larger enrollment rate gap from their suburban counterparts.
Community college enrollment dropped the most in low-income high schools while public, four-year enrollment was unaffected by the pandemic for high income high schools.

“The new data show large enrollment disparities by income and poverty levels of high schools during COVID-19,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Students from disadvantaged schools are showing much higher rates of decline in college enrollment than their more advantaged counterparts. These findings further illustrate how the pandemic has reduced access to postsecondary education, particularly for students seeking more affordable options in the public sector.

“Regarding the process error, we discovered it while updating last fall’s data, and we regret that this unusual error impacted both the past High School Benchmarks COVID-19 Special Analysis and the Transfer Report. After further review, we confirmed that the Transfer Reports’ major trends for fall 2020 remain the same. No other reports were impacted.”

The High School Benchmarks 2020 report data are drawn from the Clearinghouse’s StudentTracker® for High Schools service and are presented for students from different types of high schools, such as low- versus higher-income, and low versus high minority. This enables more focused discussions, particularly about low-income and minority students traditionally not well served by higher education.

The Research Center’s COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report for spring 2021 is scheduled to be released in early April along with corrected errors for fall 2020. The report identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By making transfer data and insights accessible online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Overall Spring College Enrollments Down Nearly 3% Nationwide, According to Early Data

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Overall Spring College Enrollments Down Nearly 3% Nationwide, According to Early Data

Initial Undergraduate and Graduate Enrollments Mirror Fall 2020

HERNDON, VA – (MARCH 11, 2021) – Spring enrollment appears to be showing the same level of enrollment losses overall as the fall 2020 trend, according to the latest data by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Undergraduate enrollment is down 4.5% while graduate enrollment is up 4.3%. Overall, college enrollment is running 2.9% below last spring’s level.

Community colleges remain the most affected sector of higher education by COVID-19, down 9.5% from a year ago, the same rate of decline as the fall. Community colleges had decreased 1.3% from this time in spring 2020. Results released today are preliminary, based on data as of February 11, 2021, and reflecting 6.7 million students, as reported by 43% of the colleges participating in the Clearinghouse.

“There’s no quick turnaround in sight for undergraduate enrollment declines driven by the pandemic,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Education institutions, high schools and policymakers will need to work together to help bring back the learners who are struggling during the pandemic and recession.”

Public four-year undergraduate enrollment is currently falling more precipitously (-3.3% this spring compared to -1.1% last spring and -1.9% in fall 2020). Graduate enrollment, on the other hand, is growing at a higher rate than in the fall (+4.3% this spring compared to +1.5% last spring and +2.9% fall 2020). Most of the increase in graduate student numbers occurred at public four-year institutions.

Total bachelor’s degree enrollment has slipped -2.1% this spring compared to -0.6% last spring and -1.1% in fall 2020. There are much larger drops in associate degree enrollment: -10.5% this spring compared to -2.9% last spring and -9% fall 2020. See tab 2; figure 3 for details.

But continuing the pre-pandemic trend, enrollment in certificate programs is up at both the undergraduate (+3.3%) and graduate level (+15.4%) compared to spring 2020. Certificate enrollment, although comprising a small share of undergraduate enrollment (3%), is the only type of credential that increased from last spring at the undergraduate level. See tab 2 for details.

Undergraduate enrollment declined in all racial and ethnic categories. While Native American enrollment decreased the most, both Asian and Hispanic enrollments have dropped in contrast to their growth last spring. Notably, Latina women declined nearly 10% at community colleges after having made a 1.8% gain in the year prior. Furthermore, international enrollments are down nearly 16% for undergraduates and more than 5% for graduate students. See tab 4 for details.

Traditional college-age student enrollment (ages 18-24) declined more sharply this spring (-5.3% compared to -0.6% last spring) and decreased at twice the rate of adult students aged 25 and older (-2.6%). See tab 4 for details. For fall 2020 enrollment declines based on age, see table 2 of the Current Term Enrollment Estimates.

Undergraduate enrollment at primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enrolled exclusively online prior to the pandemic, experienced a 7.1% gain, five percentage points higher than spring 2020, and graduate students are up 7.4% but at a slower pace than last year (+19.3%). See tab 7 for details.

Bachelor’s degree programs in health care fields as well as computer and information sciences have weathered the effect of the pandemic best, mostly following pre-pandemic enrollment trends of decline and growth, respectively. Master’s degree in business, health, education, computer and information sciences and public administration have all increased compared to last spring. See tab 5 for details.

These results will be updated throughout the spring as more data are received. The next update is scheduled for late April.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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