New Research: Spring 2021 Transfer Enrollment Declines 3.8 Times Larger Than Last Spring

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New Research: Spring 2021 Transfer Enrollment Declines 3.8 Times Larger Than Last Spring

COVID-19 Accelerated Transfer Decline for White and Black Students, Male Students, and Traditional College-Age Students

HERNDON, VA – (APRIL 12, 2021) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today new research showing transfer enrollment is down 7.9% this spring, 3.8 times larger than last spring, which declined 2.1%. Transfer enrollment declines are especially steep in the community college sector with a 15.2% drop, but transfer enrollments at public four-year colleges remain stable from last spring.

“Transfer enrollment declines this spring are largely attributable to lower enrollment levels last fall and a higher fall-to-spring attrition rate during COVID-19,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “As the pandemic continues to shift the postsecondary landscape, colleges and universities must address the needs of the students who are most impacted.”

Other highlights from the COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: First Look Spring 2021 Report include:

Students are less mobile along all transfer pathways, except for upward transfer where students grew 3% this spring over pre-pandemic levels. Both reverse and lateral transfer suffered steep enrollment declines of 21% and 9.2%, respectively.
Transfer enrollment decline is more evident among White and Black students than their Hispanic and Asian peers. Hispanic transfer enrollment currently shows the strongest growth in the public four-year sector.
With gender disparities growing across all age groups, transfer declines are larger for men, especially in upward transfer.
Transfer declined for continuing students at twice the rate of returning students this spring (-10.2% and -4.9%, respectively, from a year ago). Continuing students transferring to community colleges decreased 20.8%, ten times the pre-pandemic rate of decline.

Summary and Implications

Last fall, the Research Center found a dampening of student transfer during the pandemic, along with signs of disproportionate impacts on disadvantaged students. A year into the pandemic these trends have largely persisted into the spring and all transfer pathways continue to be impacted. There are several noteworthy patterns to know.

A ripple effect from last fall’s enrollment decline combined with an increase in the fall to spring attrition rate during COVID-19 has led to an unprecedented 5.9% decline this spring for continuing students. In contrast, there was little change in former students returning this spring after a stop-out.

In both the continuing and returning student categories, transfer enrollment declines this spring are largely borne by the community college sector—the worst hit sector by COVID-19. Community colleges have tended to lose enrollments because of growing upward transfers, fewer reverse transfers and diminishing incoming enrollments of new students.

Finally, COVID-19 accelerated the decline in transfer for White and Black students, male students, and 18- to 24-year-old students, especially in the community college sector. This suggests that even traditional-age students who were affected by constrained student transfer and mobility by the pandemic have faced unexpected hurdles in their postsecondary access and success.

Background

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress: First Look Spring 2021 Report, the third report in the series, offers a first look into the spring 2021 student transfer patterns as of February 25. This report focuses on year-over-year changes within a fixed panel of institutions representing 74% of the Clearinghouse universe and 8.8 million undergraduate students, including 532,000 transfer students. These preliminary results will be updated as more data are received later in the spring.

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report series, with support from Ascendium Education Group and ECMC Foundation, identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By providing the most up-to-date information about student transfer available online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

The next Transfer Report is scheduled for May 2021. Attend the Research Center’s webinar on April 21 at 1 pm ET to further understand the impact of the pandemic on college enrollment.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Fall 2020 College Enrollment Update for the High School Graduating Class of 2020

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Fall 2020 College Enrollment Update for the High School Graduating Class of 2020

6.8% fewer students attending college immediately after high school this past fall, an unprecedented one-year decline

HERNDON, VA – (MARCH 25, 2021) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today an update to the High School Benchmarks 2020 COVID-19 Special Analysis, showing a 6.8% decline of high school graduates attending college immediately after high school this past fall, an unprecedented one-year decline. This decline is more than four times larger than the 2019 pre-pandemic rate, but less than the 21.7% estimate reported in December 2020 preliminary report. The pattern of disparities among high schools of different characteristics remains largely the same as originally reported.

This new analysis is based on the addition of approximately 50% more data from high schools and colleges, and restated to correct a process error that resulted in an overestimate of the rate of decline in college enrollment counts.

The updated High School Benchmarks’ data covers approximately 860,000 graduates, from nearly 3,500 high schools, and their immediate fall enrollments in 87% of all postsecondary institutions that participate in the Clearinghouse. In addition to the main findings described below, detailed information about participant high school profiles and enrollment results can be found in the Appendix.

KEY FINDINGS

The pandemic disproportionately affected graduates of low-income, high-poverty, and high-minority high schools, with their enrollments dropping more steeply than their more advantaged counterparts. Enrollment declines were 2.3 times steeper for low-income high schools compared to higher-income schools.
Urban and rural schools showed roughly equal rates of decline, and a larger enrollment rate gap from their suburban counterparts.
Community college enrollment dropped the most in low-income high schools while public, four-year enrollment was unaffected by the pandemic for high income high schools.

“The new data show large enrollment disparities by income and poverty levels of high schools during COVID-19,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Students from disadvantaged schools are showing much higher rates of decline in college enrollment than their more advantaged counterparts. These findings further illustrate how the pandemic has reduced access to postsecondary education, particularly for students seeking more affordable options in the public sector.

“Regarding the process error, we discovered it while updating last fall’s data, and we regret that this unusual error impacted both the past High School Benchmarks COVID-19 Special Analysis and the Transfer Report. After further review, we confirmed that the Transfer Reports’ major trends for fall 2020 remain the same. No other reports were impacted.”

The High School Benchmarks 2020 report data are drawn from the Clearinghouse’s StudentTracker® for High Schools service and are presented for students from different types of high schools, such as low- versus higher-income, and low versus high minority. This enables more focused discussions, particularly about low-income and minority students traditionally not well served by higher education.

The Research Center’s COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report for spring 2021 is scheduled to be released in early April along with corrected errors for fall 2020. The report identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By making transfer data and insights accessible online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Overall Spring College Enrollments Down Nearly 3% Nationwide, According to Early Data

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Overall Spring College Enrollments Down Nearly 3% Nationwide, According to Early Data

Initial Undergraduate and Graduate Enrollments Mirror Fall 2020

HERNDON, VA – (MARCH 11, 2021) – Spring enrollment appears to be showing the same level of enrollment losses overall as the fall 2020 trend, according to the latest data by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Undergraduate enrollment is down 4.5% while graduate enrollment is up 4.3%. Overall, college enrollment is running 2.9% below last spring’s level.

Community colleges remain the most affected sector of higher education by COVID-19, down 9.5% from a year ago, the same rate of decline as the fall. Community colleges had decreased 1.3% from this time in spring 2020. Results released today are preliminary, based on data as of February 11, 2021, and reflecting 6.7 million students, as reported by 43% of the colleges participating in the Clearinghouse.

“There’s no quick turnaround in sight for undergraduate enrollment declines driven by the pandemic,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Education institutions, high schools and policymakers will need to work together to help bring back the learners who are struggling during the pandemic and recession.”

Public four-year undergraduate enrollment is currently falling more precipitously (-3.3% this spring compared to -1.1% last spring and -1.9% in fall 2020). Graduate enrollment, on the other hand, is growing at a higher rate than in the fall (+4.3% this spring compared to +1.5% last spring and +2.9% fall 2020). Most of the increase in graduate student numbers occurred at public four-year institutions.

Total bachelor’s degree enrollment has slipped -2.1% this spring compared to -0.6% last spring and -1.1% in fall 2020. There are much larger drops in associate degree enrollment: -10.5% this spring compared to -2.9% last spring and -9% fall 2020. See tab 2; figure 3 for details.

But continuing the pre-pandemic trend, enrollment in certificate programs is up at both the undergraduate (+3.3%) and graduate level (+15.4%) compared to spring 2020. Certificate enrollment, although comprising a small share of undergraduate enrollment (3%), is the only type of credential that increased from last spring at the undergraduate level. See tab 2 for details.

Undergraduate enrollment declined in all racial and ethnic categories. While Native American enrollment decreased the most, both Asian and Hispanic enrollments have dropped in contrast to their growth last spring. Notably, Latina women declined nearly 10% at community colleges after having made a 1.8% gain in the year prior. Furthermore, international enrollments are down nearly 16% for undergraduates and more than 5% for graduate students. See tab 4 for details.

Traditional college-age student enrollment (ages 18-24) declined more sharply this spring (-5.3% compared to -0.6% last spring) and decreased at twice the rate of adult students aged 25 and older (-2.6%). See tab 4 for details. For fall 2020 enrollment declines based on age, see table 2 of the Current Term Enrollment Estimates.

Undergraduate enrollment at primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enrolled exclusively online prior to the pandemic, experienced a 7.1% gain, five percentage points higher than spring 2020, and graduate students are up 7.4% but at a slower pace than last year (+19.3%). See tab 7 for details.

Bachelor’s degree programs in health care fields as well as computer and information sciences have weathered the effect of the pandemic best, mostly following pre-pandemic enrollment trends of decline and growth, respectively. Master’s degree in business, health, education, computer and information sciences and public administration have all increased compared to last spring. See tab 5 for details.

These results will be updated throughout the spring as more data are received. The next update is scheduled for late April.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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COVID-19 Impact: First-Time Associate Degree Earners Decline to Lowest Level Since 2012-13

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COVID-19 Impact: First-Time Associate Degree Earners Decline to Lowest Level Since 2012-13

Growth in Undergraduate Degree Earners Comes to a Standstill

HERNDON, VA – (JANUARY 28, 2021) – Growth in undergraduate credential earners has come to a standstill for the first time in the eight years since the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center started tracking these data.

According to the latest Undergraduate Degree Earners’ report released today, 3.7 million new graduates in the 2019-20 academic year represent no growth from the previous year. First-time associate degree earners are now at the lowest level since 2012-2013. Associate degree earners dropped 6.7 percent within just a few months after campuses closed, and certificate earners fell even more, by almost 20 percent, demonstrating the disproportionate effects of COVID-19 on community college students (Figure 5).

“This is the first time in the last eight years that we have seen a decline in the total number of students earning their first undergraduate credential, and it has been driven by drops in associate degree and certificate earners,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “In addition to the enrollment crisis facing community colleges reported in our COVID-19 Stay Informed and Transfer, Mobility and Progress reports, this suggests further declines to come in community college student degree attainment.”

First-time bachelor’s degree earners, however, increased 1.9 percent or nearly 28,000 more graduates over the previous year. This was an acceleration of the existing trend, as their numbers grew more in the early months of the pandemic than they did during the same months in the previous year (2.3% and 1.6%, respectively, as shown in Figure 5).

While first-time graduates decreased 1 percent, non-first-time completers, those earning stacked credentials, continued to increase, by 2.7 percent. These two groups of graduates have increasingly diverged over the last eight years. Graduates with prior awards grew by nearly 170,000 students, far outpacing first-time graduates who increased by 53,000 students over this period (Figure 2).

The Undergraduate Degree Earners report series, published annually, provides demographic and educational profile data for all students graduating with an undergraduate credential each year. Undergraduate credentials may include associate and bachelor’s degrees, and certificates. The report’s appendix provides state-level and regional trends, as well as national graduate profiles by age and type of credential received.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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SHEEO and National Student Clearinghouse Research Center to Quantify Impact of College Closure on Student Persistence and Completion

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SHEEO and National Student Clearinghouse Research Center to Quantify Impact of College Closure on Student Persistence and Completion

HERNDON, VA – (JANUARY 26, 2021) – The State Higher Education Executive Officers Association (SHEEO) and the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, with generous funding provided by Arnold Ventures, are undertaking a new multiyear research endeavor to quantify the impacts of college closure on student persistence and completion.

According to a recent analysis by the Chronicle of Higher Education, even before the pandemic, over the previous five years, an average of 20 campuses closed each month, leaving around 500,000 students (mostly working adults, low-income students, and students of color) affected.¹ Yet, little is known about what happens to students after a campus closes.

Over the next two years, leveraging a newly constructed student-level longitudinal dataset that the Clearinghouse holds on behalf of colleges, SHEEO and the Research Center will use descriptive analyses, advanced data visualization techniques, and quasi-experimental research designs to examine what happens to students post-closure. Rigorously and thoroughly quantifying the impacts of college closure on subsequent postsecondary outcomes will inform what has been a contentious policy debate around appropriate regulatory action meant to prevent, prepare for, and respond to college closures in a pandemic where more closures are expected to occur.

This work will result in a number of publicly available deliverables, including three published reports that examine the impacts of college closures on student outcomes in detail and a website devoted to the project that will house interactive data visualizations and aggregated data to download. All the research generated by this work will be widely shared with our various members, partners, and higher education stakeholders.

“Many higher education institutions find themselves at a crossroads in the wake of the financial calamities caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Though we’ve hoped all will make it through unscathed, a handful of campuses have already shut their doors,” said SHEEO President Rob Anderson. “If more closures are, in fact, coming, it’s important for researchers, higher education leaders, and policymakers to understand the ramifications of these closures on students. Knowing precisely what occurs post-closure and what state and federal policies might do to mitigate the effects on students is imperative.”

“While SHEEO has undertaken and facilitated a number of original research projects in recent months, I’m happy to announce that the college closures work is the first official project housed within our Center for State Higher Education Policy Research,” said David Tandberg, SHEEO vice president for policy research and strategic initiatives. “It is our hope that the center will provide our members and the larger higher education community with actionable and evidence-based policy recommendations that can equitably increase student success. As we undertake this work, we could not ask for a better partner than the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Their expertise, commitment to data-informed decision-making, and passion for higher education policies and programs are aligned with our own. I look forward to seeing this collaboration and project bear fruit in the coming months.”

“The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center and SHEEO will examine many questions,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director of the Research Center. “Do students disengage from higher education entirely? Do they stop out only to return later? Do they enroll at a different institution and, if so, what type of institution? Do they earn a credential and, if so, what happens to their time to degree?

“How do the answers to these questions vary by the student demographics available in the NSC data? We’re not only going to have descriptive answers, but also we’re going to have causal estimates of their impact that will help policymakers and researchers.”

About SHEEO

The State Higher Education Executive Officers Association (SHEEO) serves the chief executives of statewide governing, policy, and coordinating boards of postsecondary education and their staffs. Founded in 1954, SHEEO promotes an environment that values higher education and its role in ensuring the equitable education of all Americans, regardless of race/ethnicity, gender, or socioeconomic factors. Together with its members, SHEEO aims to achieve this vision by equipping state higher education executive officers and their staffs with the tools to effectively advance the value of higher education, promoting public policies and academic practices that enable all Americans to achieve success in the 21st century, and serving as an advocate for state higher education leadership. For more information, visit https://sheeo.org.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

¹Vasquez, M., & Bauman, D. (2019). How America’s college-closure crisis leaves families devasted. The Chronicle of Higher Education. Retrieved from https://www.chronicle.com/article/how-americas-college-closure-crisis-leaves-families-devastated/?cid2=gen_login_refresh&cid=gen_sign_in

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Student Transfer Decreased Sharply During the Pandemic, Potentially Causing a Lasting Impact on Postsecondary Attainment

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Student Transfer Decreased Sharply During the Pandemic, Potentially Causing a Lasting Impact on Postsecondary Attainment

COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Fall 2020 Final Report Released

HERNDON, VA – (DECEMBER 21, 2020) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today new research revealing that the decline in student transfer and mobility this fall is steep and widespread. Only primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enrolled exclusively online before the pandemic, show an increase in returning transfer students this fall.

“Transfer is an important part of student success, enabling access to bachelor’s degrees for community college students, and critical opportunities for course-correction by students whose goals have changed or who need a stronger institutional fit,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse. “As the pandemic continues to constrain these avenues of institutional choice, students will face ever larger barriers to educational attainment, promising careers, and socioeconomic mobility. Today’s data show that these adverse impacts fall disproportionately on Black and Hispanic students.”

The general dampening of student mobility is seen in all transfer pathways. Reverse transfers from four-year to two-year institutions decreased the most, by more than five times the pre-pandemic rate of decline (-19.4% vs. -3.6%). Lateral transfers—students transferring from a four-year to another four-year college, or a two-year to another two-year college—decreased four times more than the pre-pandemic rate of decline (-12.6% vs. -3.1%). There is a 0.7 percent drop from last fall in upward transfers from two-year to four-year institutions, after a slight increase pre-pandemic (+0.2%).

Other key COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report findings include:

Transfer students decreased considerably this fall (-8.1%), more than triple the drop among continuing or returning students who did not transfer (-2.4%, not counting freshmen).
Black and Hispanic transfer students decreased most precipitously at community colleges, and Asian students made gains in the four-year college sector.
Male student mobility declined sharply during the pandemic, regardless of age.
Former students who stopped out prior to the outbreak are far less likely to have returned to higher education this fall, down by 16.7% after a 7.9% growth the year prior. Those who did return were more likely to have transferred to a new institution in the process, and a growing number are choosing primarily online institutions.
Four-year colleges experienced relatively smaller declines in students transferring into four-year colleges (transfer-in enrollment), falling by 2.6% from last fall, as opposed to a more severe decrease of 18.9% in two-year colleges’ transfer-in enrollment. Public four-year institutions maintained relatively steady transfer-in enrollments amid the pandemic, with a growing share of continuing students transferring from two-year colleges.

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report findings are based on the panel of institutions representing 92% of the Clearinghouse universe of institutions and 12.5 million undergraduates without prior bachelor’s degrees or higher and who are not dual-enrolled high school students, as of November 19, 2020.

The Research Center’s COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report series, with support from Ascendium Education Group and ECMC Foundation, identifies changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By making transfer data and insights accessible online for free, the Research Center enables schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

Forthcoming COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Reports:

First-Look Spring 2021 Report: April 8, 2021
Final Spring 2021 Report: May 2021
Special Report 1: Summer 2021
First-Look Fall 2021 Report: Oct. 2021
Final Fall 2021 Report: Dec 2021
Spring 2022 Report: May 2022
Special Report 2: Summer 2022

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center analyzes the data from 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the U.S., as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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