Fall 2020 College Enrollment Declines 2.5%: Nearly Twice the Rate of Decline of Fall 2019

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Fall 2020 College Enrollment Declines 2.5%: Nearly Twice the Rate of Decline of Fall 2019

Enrollment Gaps Appear to Be Widening Because of COVID-19 and the Recession

HERNDON, VA – (DECEMBER 17, 2020) – Overall postsecondary enrollments declined 2.5 percent in fall 2020, nearly twice the rate of enrollment decline reported in fall 2019, according to the final fall 2020 enrollment report issued by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. The nation’s fall, total unduplicated postsecondary enrollment fell from 17.9 million students in 2019 to 17.5 million students in 2020.

In fall 2019, overall postsecondary enrollments decreased 1.3 percent or more than 231,000 students. The annual Fall Current Term Enrollment Estimates provides enrollment declines and increases for each state and the District of Columbia.

In 2020, undergraduate enrollment drove the decline by decreasing 3.6 percent or over 560,200 students from 2019. Sharp declines at public two-year institutions of more than 544,200 students contributed the most to the decline (See Table 3). Furthermore, the freshman enrollment decline of 13.1 percent or more than 327,500 students over last fall is unprecedented (See Table 2).

In a bright spot, graduate enrollment increased by over 98,800 students, or 3.6 percent from the previous fall. The 12 states increasing enrollment compared to 2019 are: Arizona, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Kentucky, Maryland, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Virginia, and West Virginia.

“As the fall semester comes to a close, the impact of the pandemic seems to be disproportionately affecting disadvantaged students by keeping them out of college,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The data reveal that community colleges and freshmen saw the steepest drops in enrollment, while the declines among four-year colleges and continuing undergraduates were generally much smaller.

“Looking through the additional lens of 2020 high school graduates, we observe an even sharper picture, as the immediate college enrollments of those from high poverty, low income, and urban high schools have been hit the hardest. The enrollment gaps appear to be widening because of COVID-19 and the recession.”

Other key findings include:

Public college enrollment (two-year and four-year institutions combined), which enrolls 7 out of 10 postsecondary students, declined by 4% or nearly 530,000 students this fall, mainly because of decreases at public two-year institutions.
Public two-year institutions, in line with what we have documented throughout the fall, recorded undergraduate enrollment losses of over 544,200 students or 10.1% over last year.
Private nonprofit four-year institutions saw declines of roughly 36,000 undergraduate students, offset by increases in graduate students for a 0.1% decrease in total enrollment.
Public four-year institution enrollments increased 0.2 percent or an additional 14,300 students from last fall, driven by the growth in graduate enrollment of more than 62,500 students, and Undergraduate-level certificate or other non-degree program enrollments certificate other non-degree program enrollments of nearly 17,000 students.
Private for-profit four-year institutions grew by 5.3 percent over last year and was the only sector to demonstrate enrollment growth at both the undergraduate and graduate levels (See Table 3). This sector accounts for 4.4% of national postsecondary enrollment.
The freshman enrollment decline of 13.1 percent or more than 327,500 students over last fall is unprecedented (See Table 2). Sharp declines at public two-year institutions of more than 207,200 students or a 21% decrease contributed the most to the decline, falling at a rate almost 20 times higher than the prior year’s decline (pre-pandemic). Private nonprofit four-year colleges also saw double-digit declines of more than 45,500 freshmen or a 10.5% decrease, followed by public four-year institutions of more than 81,600 or an 8.1% decrease. Private for-profit institutions showed an increase in freshman enrollment of 9.5%, or 3,178 students.
Unlike in spring 2020, when dual enrollments of high school students grew 6.9 percent from the previous year, the fall growth rate fell to 0.8% or 8,400 dual enrollees (See Table 5).
Public two-year institutions still enrolled most dual enrollees (61.9%), but this proportion is 0.8 percentage points below last year’s share. Public four-year institutions made the most gains in dual enrollments with more than 10,200 students or a 3.3% increase, and now comprise 30.5 percent of all dual enrollments in fall 2020.
Sharp declines in public two-year colleges are linked to corresponding drops in popular major fields (See Table 11). The largest enrollment decline occurred in Liberal Arts/General Studies (209,400 students, 11.9% decrease), followed by Business/Management (over 52,300 students, 9.2% decrease). Health Professions/Related majors remained unchanged from last year (approximately 18,600 students, 2.3% decrease).
Graduate enrollment increases were evident across all institution sectors, with the largest increase seen at public four-year institutions by over 62,500 students or a 4.6% increase (See Table 3).

Background information

The Fall 2020 Current Term Enrollment Estimates (CTEE) Report provides the Research Center’s final estimates of postsecondary enrollment numbers based on the Clearinghouse universe of institutions, after accounting for data coverage rates. This differs from the Stay Informed report series that is designed to quantify the immediate effects of COVID-19 by analyzing year-over-year percentage change in unadjusted, preliminary data for fixed panels of institutions that reported data in the same month each year from fall 2018 to fall 2020. The estimated enrollment numbers presented in the CTEE report may differ from the results of the Stay Informed reports due to differences in methodology and institution coverage.

The CTEE Series, published every December and May, provides national enrollment estimates by institutional sector, enrollment intensity, age group, gender, major field as well as state-level enrollment estimates. As of fall 2020, postsecondary institutions actively submitting enrollment data to the Clearinghouse account for 97 percent of the total enrollments at Title IV, degree-granting institutions in the United States.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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National Six-Year College Completion Rate Plateaus to 60.1%, According to New Research

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National Six-Year College Completion Rate Plateaus to 60.1%, According to New Research

Completion Progress Made Over Past Several Years Could Be Jeopardized

HERNDON, VA – (DECEMBER 3, 2020) – The national six-year completion rate appears to have reached a plateau, showing the smallest increase of the last five years, a 0.3 percentage point growth to 60.1 percent, according to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s Completing College: National and State Reports.

The latest data reveals a shifting college completion picture for the nation as well as states. The improvement in six-year completion rates had been slowing, from 2.2 percentage points (2010 to 2011 cohorts) to 1.4 percentage points (2012 to 2013 cohorts). This number is down to 0.3 percentage points for the latest 2014 cohort.

“The completions rate trend is flattening for traditional age students, who comprise the vast majority of the 2014 starting cohort,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “While adult completion rates continue to increase generally, the decline among community college starters, particularly Hispanic and Black students, threatens to reverse the improvements of the past several years.”

Far fewer states reported an increase in six-year completion rates, particularly among community college starters, than they did in the previous cohort year. In addition, the marginal increase in completion rates arising from the additional two years between the six- and eight-year outcomes has shrunk, resulting in a drop in the eight-year completion rate nationally as well as in all types of institutions.

In line with the national trend, public four-year completion rates rose in 32 out of 46 states for which sufficient data are available, while community college rates declined in 26 states out of 42 states. However, the pace of improvement at public four-year colleges has slowed in 18 out of the 33 states that improved. Particularly, Ohio, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah had gains that were two percentage points smaller than in the previous cohort.

For community college starters, far fewer states improved this year. Only 16 states increased their six-year community college completion rate by at least 0.5 percentage points, compared to 33 states in the previous cohort. Of these 16 states, only six states—Colorado, Georgia, Idaho, Maine, New Mexico, and South Dakota—saw improvement of more than 1 percentage point, compared to 27 states in the previous cohort year.

It is unlikely that either the six-year or eight-year completion rates reflected in this year’s report have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic because the degrees and certificates counted were all completed by June 2020. The Research Center’s COVID-19 Supplement Enrollment Report found very little enrollment effects during the Spring of 2020.

Report highlights include:

The national eight-year completion rate fell for the first time in three years, by 0.5 percentage points. Currently, the national eight-year completion rate stands at 61.3 percent for students who entered college in 2012, down from 61.8 percent in the previous cohort year.
Community colleges are the only institution type to experience a drop in the six-year completion rate, reversing the upward trends over the previous two cohort years. The six-year completion rate dropped slightly at community colleges (0.5 percentage points) after having risen for two consecutive years. Private nonprofit four-year institutions made a 0.2 percentage point gain, while public four-year colleges improved by 0.7 percentage points. For-profit four-year institution completion rates jumped 3.1 percentage points, marking an increase of over 10 percentage points in the last four years. But it has little impact on the national rate, as less than 2 percent of the cohort start at a for-profit four-year college.
The six-year completion rate of community college starters declined for Hispanic and Black students, despite previous growth. Only Asian students made gains, whose rate improved by 1.3 percentage points. Notably, Black students who started at public four-year institutions made stronger gains than white students.
States’ college completion patterns appear to be shifting. In line with the national trends, the six-year completion rate was slow to improve at the state level, now with more states experiencing a decline compared to last year, largely because of the decreases at community colleges in many states. Unlike the upward trends we reported last year, out of 42 states with sufficient data, 11 states have slipped for the fall 2014 cohort.

As the fall 2020 Stay Informed report shows, community colleges suffered the most from enrollment declines in the summer and the fall of 2020, revealing a looming enrollment crisis for community colleges in the age of COVID-19. If the community college enrollments and completions continue to trend downward during the pandemic, the steady progress in college completions made by the nation and most states over the past few years could be jeopardized.

The national completion rate counts all students who enter postsecondary education for the first time each year, enrolling full-time or part-time at two-year or four-year institutions, and completing at any U.S. degree-granting institution. It includes those who complete after transfer, not just completions at the starting institution. Thus, the results more fully capture today’s students’ diverse pathways to success, which increasingly involve mobility across institutions and across state lines, re-entry after stop-out, and changes in enrollment intensities.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes. To learn more, visit http://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Fall 2020 Undergraduate Enrollment Down 4.4%; Graduate Enrollment Up 2.9%

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Fall 2020 Undergraduate Enrollment Down 4.4%; Graduate Enrollment Up 2.9%

Freshman Enrollment Continues to Show Steep Declines Across All Sectors, Races, Ages and Gender

HERNDON, VA – (NOVEMBER 12, 2020) – Undergraduate enrollment is down 4.4% while graduate enrollment is up 2.9% compared to the same time last year, according to the latest data by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Overall, postsecondary enrollment this fall is 3.3% lower.

The previous report released on Oct. 15 showed a 4% decrease in undergraduate enrollment and a 2.7% growth in graduate enrollment, with an overall 3% decline in postsecondary enrollment.

“The big picture remains the same after the inclusion of data for an additional 4.4 million students,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The latest data update shows community colleges and freshmen continuing to show the steepest drops in enrollment, while the declines among undergraduates generally have deepened.”

The decline in freshman enrollment this fall has been revised from last month’s report of a 16% decline, to a still substantial decline of 13%. Community colleges are showing the sharpest drop (-18.9%), almost 19 times the pre-pandemic loss rate (-1% between fall 2018 and 2019; see Figure 6). Public four-year institutions declined -10.5% and private nonprofit four-year institutions dropped -8.5%.

The impact of COVID-19 on undergraduate enrollment is felt most in the Midwest where numbers are down by 5.7%, followed by the West (-4.7%), Northeast (-4.4%) and South (-3.8%). Out of all 50 states, only five states (Idaho, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, and West Virginia) have seen more undergraduate students this fall than last fall. The steepest decline was seen in South Dakota (-12.4%), followed by New Mexico (-9.7%) and Alaska and Indiana (-9.2% each).

Graduate enrollment is up in 38 states, with Mississippi (+17.9%), Virginia (+10.6), and New Hampshire (+10.1%) experiencing double-digit increases this fall. In contrast, 11 states face declines ranging from 0.2% to 4.7%. Both undergraduate and graduate enrollment increased in Idaho, New Hampshire, Utah, and West Virginia.

This third update to the fall 2020 series, Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information, is based on 13.6 million enrolled students from 76% of postsecondary institutions reporting to the Clearinghouse, as of Oct. 22. For comparisons, see our previous press release. The Research Center will provide the final fall enrollment data on Dec. 17.

Additional results include:

Among undergraduate students, Native American students continue to see the steepest decline overall (-9.6%), followed by Black students (-7.5%), White students (-6.6%), Hispanic students (-5.4%), and Asian students (-3.1%). Fall 2019’s upward trend among Hispanic students is now reversed, largely due to the drop in their community college enrollment this fall.

International student enrollments have dropped severely (-14.9%) at the undergraduate level and were still the only student group that experienced declines in graduate enrollment (-7.8%).

With increased institutional coverage, as well as data updates from existing schools, the four-year for-profit sector is now showing a slight drop of 0.1% in undergraduate enrollment compared to last year at this time.

Undergraduate enrollment at primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enrolled exclusively online before the pandemic, increased by 4.9%, primarily due to growth in the number of part-time students.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from nearly 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97% of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Fall 2020 First Look Transfer Patterns Show More Students Moving From Community Colleges to Four-Year Colleges; Fewer Transfers Otherwise

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Fall 2020 First Look Transfer Patterns Show More Students Moving From Community Colleges to Four-Year Colleges; Fewer Transfers Otherwise

Good News for Community College Students Pursuing a Bachelor’s Degree but Subgroups Falling Further Behind Other Demographics

HERNDON, VA – (OCTOBER 27, 2020) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center released today new research that shows increased transfers from community colleges to four-year institutions in the first fall semester of the pandemic, while fewer students transferred from four-year institutions to two-year colleges, or laterally among two-year or four-year institutions. These findings are based on preliminary data reported as of September 24, 2020, by 54% of Title IV degree-granting institutions that participate in the Clearinghouse.

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report reveals that continuing students are the driver of increases in upward transfer. This is good news for four-year colleges looking to close enrollment gaps, but adds to enrollment concerns in the community college sector. Even though the increase in upward transfer is promising for community college students seeking a bachelor’s degree, it was uneven across different student subgroups, with male students, Black students, and adult learners falling further behind other demographics.

“The pandemic seems to be affecting students mainly by keeping them out of college, not by driving them to change colleges,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Fewer students are enrolling as freshmen and fewer are returning from stop-outs, and despite fears that many would be forced to transfer to lower-cost or closer-to-home options, student mobility overall appears constrained.”

The COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report findings include:

This first look challenges recent predictions about the likely effects of the pandemic, such as an anticipated influx of four-year college students transferring into community colleges. There is little evidence of an expected increase in the challenges facing students seeking to transfer upward from a community college.
The overall transfer enrollment is down 4.7% from last fall, declining slightly more steeply than the number of undergraduate students generally. Each transfer pathway, however, responded differently. The number of reverse transfers fell far more (-18.4%), along with summer swirlers (-10.8%) and lateral transfers (-8.3%), while upward transfers unexpectedly increased (+2.6%).
The growth in upward transfers is led by continuing students, those who maintained enrollment since the COVID-19 outbreak. The number of continuing upward transfer students without first finishing an associate degree increased from last fall; upward transfers who crossed state lines also increased. Furthermore, returning students, those who had a stop-out prior to the outbreak, are less likely to come back at all this fall, and less than half of those who returned transferred.

The Research Center’s COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report series, with support from Ascendium Education Group and the ECMC Foundation, will identify changes in student transfer pathways that are attributable to the pandemic by using historical data as the pre-pandemic baseline and the Clearinghouse’s current enrollment data. By making transfer data and insights accessible online for free, the Research Center will enable schools, institutions, organizations, and policymakers to better adapt and serve students, particularly those from the most vulnerable populations, during the pandemic and beyond.

The next updates (with dates subject to change) to the COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report are:

End of Term Report: Dec. 21, 2020, Representing Fall 2020
First-Look of Term Report: March 2021, Representing Spring 2021
End of Term Report: May 2021, Representing Spring 2021
Special Report: Summer 2021, Representing Academic Year 2020-21
First-Look of Term Report: Oct. 2021, Representing Fall 2021
End of Term Report: Dec 2021, Representing Fall 2021
End of Term Report: May 2022, Representing Spring 2022
Special Report: Summer 2022, Topic TBD

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Fall 2020 Undergraduate Enrollment Down 4% Compared to Same Time Last Year

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Fall 2020 Undergraduate Enrollment Down 4% Compared to Same Time Last Year

Enrollment Picture Worsens as More Colleges Report Data, and Number of Freshmen Declines 16%

HERNDON, VA – (OCTOBER 15, 2020) – Roughly one month into the fall 2020 semester, undergraduate enrollment is now running 4% below last year’s level, and the upward trend for graduate enrollment has slipped to 2.7%, according to the latest data by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. As a result, overall postsecondary enrollment is down 3% compared to the same time last year.

“With more data, the downward trends identified in September’s First Look report appear steeper, while also emerging for more states and student groups,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Most strikingly, freshman students are by far the biggest decline of any group from last year, with a decrease of 16.1% nationally and a 22.7% drop at community colleges in particular. First-time students account for 69% of the total drop in undergraduate enrollment.”

This second update for the fall 2020 series, Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information, is based on 9.2 million students or nearly 54% of postsecondary institutions reporting to the Clearinghouse, as of Sept. 24. The next update is scheduled to be released Nov. 12.

Additional results include:

Undergraduate enrollment is down at all types of institutions, except for private for-profit four-year colleges.

Community colleges continue to suffer the most with a decrease of 9.4% percent. Community colleges’ enrollment decline is now nearly nine times their pre-pandemic loss rate (-1.1% for fall 2019 compared to fall 2018). Even more concerning, the number of freshmen also dropped most drastically at community colleges (-22.7%).
Public four-year and private nonprofit four-year colleges show a much smaller drop (-1.4% and – 2.0%, respectively). Freshmen are down far more steeply (-13.7% and -11.8%, respectively).
As the only exception, for-profit four-year colleges are running 3% higher than last fall.
At primarily online institutions, where more than 90% of students enroll exclusively online even before the pandemic, enrollments are growing at both the undergraduate and graduate levels (+6.8% and +7.2%, respectively), regardless of student age. Particularly, adult students age 25 and older, who make up most of the undergraduates at these institutions increased 5.5 percent, after a 6.3% decline in the year prior to the pandemic.

All student groups identified on a path of decline in the First Look report have fallen further.

American Indian and Native Alaskan students suffered the sharpest decline of all racial/ethnic undergraduate students (-10.7%), followed by Black students (-7.9%), White students (-7.6%), Hispanic students (-6.1%), and Asian students (-4.0%). A double-digit drop continued for international undergraduates (-13.7%).
Male undergraduate enrollment fell by three times the rate of female enrollment (-6.4% vs. -2.2%).
Graduate enrollment grew across all racial/ethnic groups, particularly Hispanic and Black students (14.2% and 9.3%, respectively). International graduate enrollment declined 7.6%.
Preliminary data shows that Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) track closely the national trends for undergraduates overall, with somewhat more larger declines among private nonprofit four-year HBCUs and smaller drops among public two-year HBCUs.

Though undergraduate enrollment fell across all regions, the Midwest suffered the most (-5.7%) followed by the West (-3.9%), South (-3.6%) and Northeast (-3.4%).

Among 47 states for which sufficient data are available, only Nebraska, New Hampshire, Utah, Vermont, and West Virginia had more undergraduates compared to last fall while the other 42 states declined, ranging from -0.4% to -15.8%.
26 states fell more than the national average of 4%, including those with a double-digit drop, Rhode Island (-15.8%), New Mexico (-10.6%), and Michigan (-9.7%).
Graduate enrollment is up for 38 states, with 24 states exceeding the 2.7% national average rate of growth. Graduate enrollment increases are most pronounced in Arizona and Mississippi, with both up 16% or more over fall 2019.
Growth in graduate enrollment is more pronounced in the West and South (+5.7% and +4.3%, respectively), followed by the Midwest with a 1.3% increase, while the Northeast has a small decline of 0.9% after an increase of 1.8% in the previous year.

The Research Center’s First Look Fall 2020 report in September showed undergraduate student enrollment declined 2.5%; graduate students increased 3.9%; and postsecondary enrollment as a whole down 1.8%, compared to September 2019. Those results were based on 3.6 million students or nearly 22% of institutions reporting to the Clearinghouse, as of September 10.

The next update to the Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information is scheduled for November 12. Unlike the Research Center’s normal Current Term Enrollment Estimates’ report series, Stay Informed highlights year-over-year changes, using 2018 and 2019 historical data as pre-pandemic baselines and creating fixed panels of institutions that have submitted data as of each month. This allows the Research Center to provide early insights with preliminary data before the full enrollment reporting is completed for the term. The Research Center will update the data monthly, for various subgroups of students, programs, institutions, states, or regions.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Undergraduate Enrollment Down 2.5% and Graduate Students Up 3.9%, Compared to Sept. 2019

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Undergraduate Enrollment Down 2.5% and Graduate Students Up 3.9%, Compared to Sept. 2019

Preliminary Fall 2020 Data Show Undergraduate Students Need More Support During COVID-19 Pandemic

HERNDON, VA – (SEPTEMBER 24, 2020) – The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center announced today new data that show undergraduate student enrollment declining 2.5%, while graduate students are up 3.9%, as of September 10. As a result, postsecondary enrollment as a whole is down 1.8%, compared to the same time last year.

The results are based on 3.6 million students at 629 colleges or nearly 22% of institutions reporting to the Clearinghouse to date. Updated enrollment will be released monthly throughout the fall as more colleges report their data.

Enrollments are down in all types of institutions at the undergraduate level. Community colleges show the greatest losses of 8%, followed by private nonprofit four-year institutions declining 3.8%. Public four-year institutions are suffering far less with a decrease of 0.4%, although they vary by campus setting, with urban institutions increasing slightly while rural schools fell 4%. Community colleges, on the other hand, suffered universally regardless of location (See Figure 9).

Undergraduate enrollment is running below last year’s level for every racial and ethnic group. American Indian and Native Alaskan students are down 8%; White students and Black students declined 6% each, and both Hispanic and Asian student enrollments dropped more than 3%. Although data are less complete for them, international students appear to have suffered the steepest declines, with non-resident alien undergraduates down 11.2% (See Figure 4).

As an exception to the general declines, graduate enrollments are up, with all racial/ethnic categories seeing increases. Graduate enrollments grew particularly among Hispanic students (14.2%). However, international graduate students fell by 5% (See Figure 4).

“Adding to what we saw in the Summer term enrollments, the fall data continue to show how much higher the stakes are for community college students during disruptions like the pandemic and the subsequent recession,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The picture will become clearer as more data come in, but at this point the large equity gap for students who rely on community colleges for access to higher education is a matter of critical concern.”

At primarily online institutions, where more than 90 percent of students enrolled exclusively online even before the pandemic, undergraduates decreased by 3.5%, and graduate students gained by 3% for an overall decrease of 2.3%. Most racial and ethnic groups saw increases for undergraduate and graduate enrollments, but Black and Native American students declined at these institutions (See Figure 11).

Among 26 states for which sufficient data are available, 19 states show fewer undergraduate students compared to the same time last fall, with enrollment declines ranging from 0.1 percent to 13.9 percent. By contrast, graduate enrollments are up for 21 states, with 15 states exceeding the national average rate of growth of 3.9%. In a handful of states, Arizona, Maryland, North Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia, enrollments are up at both undergraduate and graduate levels. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, however, both undergraduate and graduate enrollments fell (See Figure 5).

With more data from colleges arriving at the Clearinghouse daily, the next update to the Stay Informed with the Latest Enrollment Information research that tracks the impact of COVID-19 on postsecondary enrollments is scheduled for October 15. Unlike the Research Center’s normal Current Term Enrollment Estimates’ report series, Stay Informed highlights year-over-year changes, using 2018 and 2019 historical data as pre-pandemic baselines and creating fixed panels of institutions that have submitted data as of each month. This allows the Research Center to provide early insights with preliminary data before the full enrollment reporting is completed for the term. The Research Center will update the data monthly, for various subgroups of students, programs, institutions, states, or regions.

About the National Student Clearinghouse^® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 percent of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2018. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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