Higher Ed Transfer Paths Shrink Nearly 300,000 During the Pandemic

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Higher Ed Transfer Paths Shrink Nearly 300,000 During the Pandemic

COVID-19 Transfer Report Provides Insight into First Two Years of the Pandemic

HERNDON, VA – (SEPTEMBER 13, 2022) – Higher education experienced a two-year loss of 296,200 transfer students, or 13.5% during the pandemic, according to a new report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. From 2020 to 2022, all transfer pathways were impacted.

Prior to the pandemic, academic year 2019-20, nearly 2.2 million students transferred to another institution to continue their college careers. During the pandemic’s first year, academic year 2020-21, transfer losses equated to nearly 200,000 fewer students, or -9.1%. In the pandemic’s second year, academic year 2021-22, an additional -97,200 transfer students, or -4.9% were lost.

“Many pandemic impacts will take years to work their way through the system, continuing to alter learners’ educational trajectories and institutions’ enrollment pipelines long after the pandemic ends,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Today’s missing transfer students will too often become tomorrow’s missing graduates unless educators and policy makers respond quickly with interventions tailored to the needs of affected learners.”

Other highlights of the COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress First Two Years of the Pandemic Report include:

  • Transfer pathways into two-year institutions, via reverse transfer and two-year lateral transfer, experienced double-digit rate declines, -21.3% or -113,300 in lateral transfer; and -18.0% or -66,900 in reverse transfer. Transfers to four-year institutions also experienced steep declines, -9.7% or -86,000 in upward transfer; -7.6% or -29,900 in lateral transfer.
  • The student persistence rate one term after transferring declined across the board and remained below pre-pandemic levels. Year two, however, showed signs of recovery among younger students (20 or younger), men, bachelor’s degree-seeking students, and at private nonprofit four-year institutions.
  • Students over age 20 suffered steeper declines, accounting for 85 percent of the total two-year decline in transfer enrollment. These students declined at more than twice the rate of younger students (-16.2% vs. -7.2% for those 20 or younger). Younger students made up 30 percent of transfer enrollment overall.
  • White, Black, and Native American transfer enrollments all declined precipitously over the last two years (-163,100, -16.4%; -54,800, -16.4%; -3,100, -15.6%, respectively). For Latinx students, lateral four-year transfers increased but upward transfers declined, and their persistence rates post-transfer declined.
  • The pandemic had differential impacts on transfer for institutions serving specific populations of students. Rural-Serving Institutions (RSIs) did not fall as sharply as Non-RSIs (-51,900, -11.1% vs. -225,800, -15.4%, respectively). Hispanic Serving Institutions suffered far steeper transfer enrollment declines than Historic Black Colleges and Universities (-102,400, -16.9% vs. -1,000, -4.2%, respectively).

The following figure shows that transfer trends shifted in pandemic year two by the steep decline in upward transfer and the stabilization in lateral transfer at four-year institutions.

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center will host a webinar from 2 pm to 3 pm ET on Tuesday, Sept. 13, discussing these findings. Participants will include Doug Shapiro, Executive Director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center; John Fink, Senior Research Associate, Community College Research Center at Teachers College, Columbia University; Jeff Gold, Assistant Vice Chancellor for Student Success, California State University; Tania LaViolet, Director of College Excellence Program, Aspen Institute; Carolynn Lee, Senior Program Officer, Ascendium Education Group​​; and Sarah Belnick, Senior Program Director of College Success, ECMC Foundation.​​​​​​

Background on COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility, and Progress Report Series

The report identifies the ways the pandemic is changing transfer pathways across higher education. The pandemic’s impacts on transfer enrollment shifted as the pandemic progressed, with transfer pathways and student groups showing diverging patterns over time. As the ninth issue in the series, this report summarizes notable changes in transfer enrollment and persistence post-transfer over a two-year period, with results broken out by academic year, student characteristics, and institution type and selectivity. In addition to the minority-serving institutions analyzed in previous editions, this report offers a new analysis of Rural-Serving Institutions to gain insight to how transfer pathways were impacted in rural communities over the last two years.

The findings in this report are based on a fixed panel of institutions representing 89.9% of the Clearinghouse universe of institutions, where more than 13 million undergraduate students were enrolled, including 2 million transfer students, during the 2021-22 academic year as of June 2022. Throughout the report, pandemic year one refers to academic year 2020-21 and pandemic year two refers to academic year 2021-22, while academic year 2019-20 is referred to as pre-pandemic year.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes. To learn more, visit nscresearchcenter.org.

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On Average, Students Not on Track to Complete College in 5 Years

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On Average, Students Not on Track to Complete College in 5 Years

Students Not Attempting or Earning Enough Credits Each Year

HERNDON, VA – (AUGUST 2, 2022) – On average, a full-time student does not attempt enough credits to complete a bachelor’s degree within four years or earn enough credits to complete a bachelor’s degree within five years, according to the Postsecondary Data Partnership (PDP) Insights Report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.

“This is the first ever report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center that uses actual credit information and focuses on early momentum metrics such as first-year credit accumulation rate and credit completion ratio,” said Dr. Afet Dundar, Director, Equity in Research and Analytics at the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center and one of the authors of the report. “College and university administrators and practitioners can use these metrics to design effective and timely support for those students who need it the most, while students are still enrolled. Otherwise, students will continue to fall behind academically and financially by not completing college as soon as possible.”

The 2022 PDP Insights report focuses on two primary metrics: students’ first year credit completion ratio (CCR) and credit accumulation rate (CAR). The CCR is the ratio of credits earned to credits attempted. The CAR measures students’ timely accumulation of college credits by identifying what share of students surpassed specific credit-hour thresholds within a given period.

Other key findings include:

  • Only 51% of full-time students earned 24 or more credit hours in their first year. Less than a third (28%) earned 30 or more hours of credit. The average full-time student does not even attempt enough credits to complete a bachelor’s degree in four years. Across their first year of study, the average full-time student attempted fewer than 27 credits and earned fewer than 22.
  • Students earn roughly 75% of the credits they attempt, on average, students earn nine credit hours for every 12 credits they attempt. However, this rate varies widely by race/ethnicity, enrollment intensity, college readiness, the degree sought, and institutional type. For example, Black males earn the equivalent of one 3-credit hour course less than their White and Asian peers across their first year of study.
  • The largest gaps between students attempting and earning credits are across dimensions of gender, race/ethnicity, and enrollment intensity. For example, among women, the percent of Asian students who earned 30 or more credits in their first year was more than double the share of their Black/African American and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander peers.
  • Adult learners (over age 24) realized consistently lower CARs and CCRs in their first year compared to their younger counterparts, even after considering enrollment intensity.

Students in this analysis are first-time, degree-seeking students entering a PDP-participating institution in the 2019-20 cohort. This report’s cohort consists of 905,689 unique student enrollments at 342 unique postsecondary institutions. Institutions actively opt-in to the PDP. No findings in this report should be considered representative of the national population of students. These students started at a PDP institution in fall 2019, winter 2019, spring 2020, or summer 2020 and were seeking an undergraduate certificate, associate degree, or bachelor’s degree. According to the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, there are approximately 16 million students enrolled nationwide in higher education.

About the Postsecondary Data Partnership

The Postsecondary Data Partnership (PDP) is a service of the National Student Clearinghouse established in 2017 to empower institutions with more comprehensive data, easier analysis, centralized reporting functions, and interactive visualizations to help understand, improve, and communicate student momentum, outcomes, and equity.

Data provided by participating PDP institutions are unique from existing national public and private sources. PDP data capture rich information on students, including demographics, high school performance, college placement, and enrollment and degree completion, and combine these data points with financial aid information, including eligibility for Pell Grants, and detailed course-takingrecords, including courses enrolled, grades, credits attempted, credits earned, and more.

These data allow for both the unique examination of many early momentum metrics—such as students’ credit accumulation and course completion—as well as the exploration of equity gaps across multiple dimensions, such as students’ gender, race/ethnicity, enrollment intensity, college placement level, and more. For more information, go to studentclearinghouse.org/solutions/ed-insights/pdp/.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, a 501(c)(3) nonprofit organization, is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes. To learn more, visit nscresearchcenter.org.

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National Student Clearinghouse and the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Announce New Board Leaders and Members

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National Student Clearinghouse and the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center Announce New Board Leaders and Members

HERNDON, VA – (JULY 6, 2022) – The National Student Clearinghouse and the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center announced today new board chairs, vice chairs, and members to each of their respective Board of Directors. The appointments include:

  • Michael Collins, Vice President at Jobs for the Future, as the Clearinghouse’s board chair;
  • Debra Chromy, President and CEO of the Trellis Company, as the Clearinghouse’s board vice chair and newly appointed to the Research Center’s board of directors;
  • A. Hope Williams, President of the North Carolina Independent Colleges and Universities, as board chair of the Research Center;
  • Sharon Morrissey, Senior Vice Chancellor, Academic & Workforce Programs at Virginia Community College System, as the vice chair of the Research Center’s board of directors; and
  • Sam Sudhakar, Chief Information Officer and Vice President for Information Technology Services at California State University, San Bernardino, joined the Clearinghouse’s board of directors.

“The Clearinghouse’s support of our k20w stakeholders continues to evolve reflecting the very clear transformation of the education to workforce continuum and the very integrated role that traditional, non-traditional and workplace learning have in enabling the path to learner successful outcomes,” said Rick Torres, President and CEO of the National Student Clearinghouse. “Our new board leadership team will be leading a Board that is completely aligned behind our mission of serving the education, workforce, and learner communities through a national, data, reporting, and insight generating infrastructure and platform. We also welcome Dr. Sam Sudhakar to our Board and look forward to gaining from his wealth of experience as an innovative technologist and futurist.

“In addition, our Research Center board leaders will continue to ensure that the Research Center is a trusted source for the latest enrollment, transfer and completion trends and serve as a starting point for stakeholders to explore how to do better with the learners they serve through sector specific benchmarking and analysis.”

The Clearinghouse is governed by a board of directors comprised of a cross-section of the constituencies that it serves, including representatives from educational institutions, educational associations, and the education finance industry. The makeup of the Clearinghouse’s board reflects its status as a trusted, neutral, and reliable source for educational information and services.

About the National Student Clearinghouse®

The National Student Clearinghouse, a nonprofit formed in 1993, is the trusted source for and leading provider of higher education verifications and electronic education record exchanges.

The Clearinghouse serves as a single point of contact for the collection and timely exchange of accurate and comprehensive enrollment, degree, and certificate records on behalf of its more than 3,600 participating higher education institutions, which represent 98 percent of all students in public and private U.S. institutions. The Clearinghouse also provides thousands of high schools and districts with continuing collegiate enrollment, progression, and completion statistics on their alumni.

Through its verification, electronic exchange, and reporting services, the Clearinghouse saves the education community cumulatively over $750 million annually. Most Clearinghouse services are provided to colleges and universities at little or no charge, including enhanced transcript and research services, enabling institutions to redistribute limited staff and budget resources to more important student service efforts. Clearinghouse services are designed to facilitate an institution’s compliance with the Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act, The Higher Education Act, and other applicable laws. The Clearinghouse has signed the Student Privacy Pledge and is the first recipient of ikeepsafe.org’s FERPA compliance badge, which was awarded to its StudentTracker for High Schools service.

For more information, visit www.studentclearinghouse.org.

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75% of Fall 2020 Freshman Class Returned to College by Fall 2021

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75% of Fall 2020 Freshman Class Returned to College by Fall 2021

1.1 Percentage Point Improvement Trends Toward Pre-Pandemic Level

HERNDON, VA – (JUNE 28, 2022) – Of the 2.3 million students who entered college for the first time in fall 2020, 75% persisted at any U.S. institution by fall 2021, according to a new report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. This is a 1.1-percentage-point improvement over the previous cohort, moving closer to the pre-pandemic level of 75.9%.

Notably, the overall persistence rate improved as first-time students declined sharply, -9.9% or 255,000 fewer students compared with fall 2019. Community colleges accounted for 58% of the decline in the fall 2020 starters or 146,700 fewer students.

“This year’s persistence rate increase is because of the growth of first-time students transferring out in their first year rather than the increase of those remaining at their starting institution,” said Doug Shapiro, Executive Director of the Research Center. “This is a reversal of last year’s trend, where the decline in the transfer-out rate had caused the first-year persistence rate to drop.”

The 2022 Persistence and Retention report shows that the transfer-out rate rebounded to 8.6%, boosting the overall persistence rate for the fall 2020 cohort. Before the pandemic, the transfer-out rate for first-time students averaged 9.2%, but precipitously fell to 7.7% for the fall 2019 cohort. As seen historically, full-time starters were more likely to transfer out than their part-time counterparts, 8.3% and 7.6%, respectively.

Furthermore, persistence and retention rates are higher for full-time students, 80.7% and 72.4%, respectively, than part-time students, 51.5% and 43.8%, respectively. However, rates began to rebound for part-time starters, +3.5 percentage points in persistence and +1.5 percentage points in retention. But full-time students declined by -0.2 percentage points in persistence and -0.7 percentage points in retention.

Community colleges and private for-profit four-year institutions saw increases in both persistence and retention, while other four-year institutions experienced small drops. The report provides detailed information and charts addressing each sector.

Persistence increased across all races/ethnicities except for Native Americans, who saw a 2.8 percentage point drop over last year. Not only do Native American students have the lowest persistence and retention rates, but they also experienced the greatest one-year decline of any group. Meanwhile, there was no notable improvement in retention, regardless of race and ethnicity.

The Persistence and Retention report series examines first-year persistence and retention rates for first-time college students. This annual report helps institutions understand trends and disparities in this important early success indicator, by institutional type, state, credential type, starting enrollment intensity, major, and student demographic characteristics such as age, race, and ethnicity. An analysis of gender disparity is included this year.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 % of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2019. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Undergraduate Credential Earners Increased By 1.1% to 3.7 Million Graduates

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Undergraduate Credential Earners Increased By 1.1% to 3.7 Million Graduates

HERNDON, VA – (JUNE 22, 2022) – In the 2020-21 academic year, the total number of undergraduate credential earners increased by 1.1% or 39,000 to 3.7 million graduates, based on the Undergraduate Degree Earners Report, Academic Year 2020-21 released today. After a brief standstill in the previous year, graduate numbers began to rise again.

After the initial standstill in the 2019-20 academic year, the overall number of undergraduate-level credential earners started to increase, continuing the pre-pandemic upward trend. This growth was fueled by students earning stacked credentials, particularly bachelor’s degree earners—including 22,000 additional baccalaureates with a prior associate degree.

“The growth in overall undergraduate credential completers this year is two-sided news,” said Mikyung Ryu, director of research publications for the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “The overall growth was led by stacked credential earners, but first-time graduates as a whole had no growth. This implies a growing dichotomy of the haves and have-nots in postsecondary attainment. “

Other report highlights include:

  • Declines in first-time graduates have stabilized, following an unusually large drop the year prior (-0.9% or over 25,000 fewer students). Certificate earners continued a downward trend (-2.6%, -11,800), while baccalaureates continued to increase (+0.7%, +10,600). Associate degree earners showed signs of rebound (+0.3%, +2,500) following a major drop the year prior (-3.7%, -28,000).
  • Traditional college-age students under 25 continued to decline in first-time associate degree and certificate completion, the age group comprising the majority of sub-baccalaureate level completers.
  • The number of older first-time graduates (25 and older) increased (+1.4%, +10,350), driven largely by the growth of graduates in their 30s (+4.3%, +10,700).

The Undergraduate Degree Earners report series, published annually, provides demographic and educational profiles for all students graduating with an undergraduate credential each year. Undergraduate credentials may include associate and bachelor’s degrees and certificates.

In the current report, the Research Center profiles graduates in the 2020-21 academic year, with a focus on first-time versus non-first-time graduates, and changes in demographics and education credentials received over the last nine academic years, since 2012-13. The Appendix provides state-level and regional trends, in addition to the national graduate profiles by age and type of credential received.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 % of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2019. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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Undergraduate Enrollment Falls 662,000 Students in Spring 2022 and 1.4 Million During the Pandemic

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Undergraduate Enrollment Falls 662,000 Students in Spring 2022 and 1.4 Million During the Pandemic

Rate of Decline Accelerates Compared to Fall 2021

HERNDON, VA – (MAY 26, 2022) – Undergraduate enrollment declined by more than 662,000 students or 4.7% from spring 2021, according to a new report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. To date, the undergraduate student body has dropped by nearly 1.4 million students or 9.4% during the pandemic. The annual rate of decline this spring is steeper than fall 2021’s drop of 3.1%, and just slightly below the 4.9% drop in spring 2021.

Meanwhile, total postsecondary enrollment of approximately 16 million students, which includes graduate students, has fallen a total of 4.1% from last spring, or 685,000 students, per the Spring 2022 Current Term Enrollment Estimates’ report. This follows a 3.5% drop last spring. All institutional sectors experienced varying degrees of enrollment declines this spring. Overall, postsecondary enrollment declined a total of nearly 7.4% or 1.3 million students since this time two-years ago.

“College enrollment declines appear to be worsening,” said Doug Shapiro, executive director, National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. “Although there may be some signs of a nascent recovery, particularly in a slight increase of first-year students, the numbers are small, and it remains to be seen whether they will translate into a larger freshman recovery in the coming fall.”

Top Spring 2022 Current Term Enrollment Estimates Findings Include:

  • The public sector, community colleges and four-year institutions combined, experienced the steepest drop, of more than 604,000 students or a 5% decline (see Table 1).
  • Community colleges continued to suffer the most, with 351,000 fewer students or a drop of 7.8%. This decline represents more than half of the total postsecondary enrollment losses this term and amounts to a total loss of more than 827,000 community college students since spring 2020 (see Table 2).
  • First-time, first-year enrollment increased this spring 4.2% or 13,700 students. This follows a decline of 3.5% or 11,800 students the previous spring. Nearly 340,000 freshmen enrolled for the first time this spring, with nearly six out of 10 starting at a community college. Community college freshmen increased by 6,000 students or 3.1%, after experiencing declines the previous spring of 23,000 students or a 10.7% loss. This spring, public four-year colleges reported the largest freshmen increase of 7,300 students or a 10.8% bump. First-time enrollments are typically much less in spring than in fall terms (See Spring Freshman Enrollment Trends’ section, page 16).

Other highlights:

There were more than 462,000 or 4.6% fewer women students this spring. This is more than double of the losses experienced the previous year, which leads to a two-year, total enrollment decline of 665,000 female students. Women declined the most at community colleges (-9.2% or 251,000 fewer women versus 100,000 or 5.6% fewer men). In all sectors, men declined by more than 220,000 students (see Table 7).

Enrollment of adults over age 24 fell by 5.8% or 354,000 students this spring, with half of this decrease (176,000 students or 10.8%) seen at community colleges (see Table 4).

Traditional college-aged students (18-24) continued to decline by 3.2% or 316,000 students since spring 2021, which is a slower pace from a 5% decline the previous year. Since the start of the pandemic, community colleges have lost nearly 20% of students in the traditional college age group and 16% of adult students (see Table 4).

In a special analysis of first-time, first-year students by race and ethnicity, Asian and Latinx freshman enrollment grew nationally over spring 2021, +15% and +4% respectively. In contrast, Black freshman enrollment declined by 6.5% or 2,600 students. The compounding previous losses results in a total of 18.7% or 8,400 fewer Black freshmen than in spring 2020.

Business, healthcare, and liberal arts continue to be the most common undergraduate majors for both four-year and two-year college students. The largest undergraduate majors at four-year institutions showed stagnant enrollment or continued drops, with a few exceptions such as computer sciences (+7.8% or 37,600 students) and psychology (+4.7% or 22,600 students). Meanwhile, two-year college skilled trades program enrollment increased this spring, including mechanic and repair (+11.5%, 9,950 students), culinary (+12.7%, 6,170 students), construction (+19.3%, 11,140 students), and precision and production (+16.7%, 7,740 students). However, only the growth of construction majors led to pre-pandemic levels of enrollment (see Tables 9 and 10).

The Current Term Enrollment Estimates (CTEE) Report Series is published in the spring and the fall of each year by the Research Center, with state-level spring enrollments broken out (see Tables 8a and 8b). A special analysis of the spring freshmen included this year highlights distinctive pandemic-related enrollment trends. The report provides national enrollment estimates by institutional sector, enrollment intensity, age group, gender, major field, and state. See the report’s methodological notes and understanding the numbers for other details.

About the National Student Clearinghouse® Research Center™

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center is the research arm of the National Student Clearinghouse. The Research Center collaborates with higher education institutions, states, school districts, high schools, and educational organizations as part of a national effort to better inform education leaders and policymakers. Through accurate longitudinal data outcomes reporting, the Research Center enables better educational policy decisions leading to improved student outcomes.

The Research Center currently collects data from more than 3,600 postsecondary institutions, which represent 97 % of the nation’s postsecondary enrollments in degree-granting institutions, as of 2019. Clearinghouse data track enrollments nationally and are not limited by institutional and state boundaries. To learn more, visit https://nscresearchcenter.org.

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